Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s unorthodoxy, Argentina’s inflation panic Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro this week has shown further signs that he is less committed to market orthodoxy than many had hoped. For now, it seems that parts of the administration are working... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM corporate earnings likely to disappoint The rally in EM equities has continued over the past month, seemingly driven by the view that recent weakness in the global economy will not last, as policymakers in the US and China in particular... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar.) Our Tracker suggests that overall EM capital outflows eased markedly in Q1. However, we think that positive sentiment towards EMs will start to turn over the coming quarters as worries about weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM currency vulnerabilities shifting In our Risk Monitor published this time last year, we warned about growing risk of crises in Turkey and Argentina. The likelihood of full-blown currency crises occurring in the emerging world now... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s first 100 days, rising regional inflation Jair Bolsonaro’s government has put forward an impressive set of plans to reform Brazil’s economy, but souring relations with congress reinforce our view that these will be diluted. Perhaps of more... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM dollar bond yields likely to rise despite dovish Fed Although the Fed’s dovish shift is likely to continue, we are sticking with our pessimistic view of the outlook for EM sovereign dollar bonds. That is because we expect credit spreads to rise sharply... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico back in Trump’s firing line President Trump’s renewed threats to a) place a 25% tariff on vehicle imports from Mexico and b) close the southern border would, if acted on, deal a substantial hit to Mexican GDP. But we think they... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Best-performing EM equities unlikely to stay on top We think that the best-performing countries in the MSCI EM Index so far this year will end up nearer the bottom of the class over the rest of 2019. That is because we expect the key factors driving... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Synchronised downturn The emerging world has entered its first synchronised downturn since 2015. Our growth forecasts remain below consensus in nearly all major EMs. With growth slowing and inflation near a decade low, EM... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Weak recovery, rates lower for longer GDP growth in Latin America probably reached a trough in Q1, but the pace of recovery will be slower than most expect. The prices of most of the region’s commodity exports will either fall or remain... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost over, MXN shrugs off USMCA risks Expectations for reforms from the Bolsonaro government came crashing back to earth this week and there is now a risk premium on the Brazilian real and dollar bonds that could increase further unless... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Robust growth in Andes, but CA deficits widening Robust GDP growth in the Andes over the past year or so has been a rare piece of good news in Latin America, but in Chile and Colombia’s case, this has come alongside growing external vulnerabilities... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly A pension setback in Brazil, Argentina’s recession Swings in Brazil’s equity and currency markets this week suggest that investors are coming to terms with the idea that pension reform will be diluted. But there are much greater concerns about... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
