Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean peso hits a bump, AMLO’s oil dilemma The Chilean peso was the worst performing major EM currency this week, but there are still good reasons to think that it will appreciate by later this year. Elsewhere, the discovery of a major... 10th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) & Mexico Ind. Production (Nov.) Strong Brazilian inflation – which jumped to 4.3% y/y last month – and signs that the economy is on a firmer footing, suggest that the further interest rate cuts some still expect in early 2020 won’t... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Oil prices, African Swine Fever & EM inflation Our measure of aggregate EM inflation, which hit a four and a half year high last month, should fall over the course of this year as the disruption caused by African Swine Fever fades. But this is... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Old tricks in Argentina, Mexico’s minimum wage hike Argentina’s government is resorting to old habits, having turned to deficit monetisation and drawing down the central bank’s FX reserves in recent weeks. While these unorthodox measures will help to... 3rd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina reprofiling, Brazilian beef & Mexico rates Argentina’s government has postponed the payment of around $9bn on Treasury bills until August 2020, reaffirming our view that a restructuring of local-law debts was on the cards. However, maturity... 20th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for disappointing recovery in 2020 EM activity slowed at the start of Q4 and aggregate growth in 2019 as a whole is likely to be the weakest since 2015. Conditions should improve in 2020, but we think growth across many EMs will... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Mixed end to a disappointing year The last round of economic data released this year pointed to a mixed performance in Latin America. Growth seems to have remained robust in Colombia in Q4 – and to have strengthened in Brazil – but... 19th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guessing about Guzmán, USMCA deal finalised Comments from Argentina’s President Fernández and his economy minister Martín Guzmán this week provided some relief that they don’t plan to return to ‘kirchnerismo’. But lingering uncertainty over the... 13th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov. 2019) On a net basis, capital continued to flow out of Emerging Markets (EMs) last month, and we think that 2020 will be the seventh consecutive year of outflows. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new cabinet, Chile’s economic pain Recent reports suggest that Argentina President-elect Alberto Fernández, who takes office on Tuesday, has selected Martín Guzmán as his economy minister. That’s unlikely to inspire much investor... 6th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov.) The slightly larger-than-expected Brazilian rise in Brazilian inflation in November, to 3.3% y/y, was driven partly by food inflation, but also by a rise in regulated prices. The data are unlikely to... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile CPI (Nov.) The rise in Chilean inflation to 2.7% y/y in November is likely to be followed by a further increase to around 4.0% y/y early next year. That said, this increase will be temporary. As a result, we... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Q3 the high point in the regional recovery We estimate that regional GDP growth picked up to about 0.5% q/q in Q3, which would be the fastest pace in 18 months. But that probably marks the peak in the recovery. Argentina and Chile are set to... 29th November 2019 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency falls won’t stop rate cuts The Brazilian real and the Chilean peso both fell sharply over the past week, but we still think that policymakers in both counties will cut their key interest rates in December. Despite positive... 29th November 2019 · 6 mins read
