Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Asian electronics and the coming EM export rebound The year-on-year rate of EM export growth should turn positive in the coming months, but this will mainly reflect favourable base effects from the Asian electronics cycle rather than stronger... 19th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP picks up in Q3, Q4 likely to contract While GDP growth picked up in Q3, activity data for September indicates that the economy had already slowed significantly prior to the protests beginning. GDP is likely to contract in Q4. That said... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean referendum offer, Argentina bonds, Mexico rates Chilean markets rebounded today on news that congress accepted protestors’ demand that a constituent assembly play a role in writing a new constitution next year. This suggests that the crisis may... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Protests persist, but fallout will vary Ongoing protests in Chile, Hong Kong and Lebanon will weigh on their economies and financial markets, but to different degrees. While the tightening of financial conditions and strikes in Chile will... 15th November 2019 · 9 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Equity rally unlikely to last, regardless of a trade deal EM equities have continued to rise over the past month, seemingly driven by optimism about an imminent US/China trade deal and some improvement in the economic data. But we are sceptical that the... 13th November 2019 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 13th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian reforms, Chile protests, Fernández shuns IMF Fiscal reforms proposed by Brazil’s president this week are a step in the right direction, but the good news already seems to be priced. Indeed, markets took their cue from a failed oil auction... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM catch-up no longer the norm More EMs’ income levels have fallen relative to the US’s than have risen this year, the first time this has happened since the 1990s. This is likely to be a sign of things to come in the 2020s. 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry on a stable footing in Q4 The EM manufacturing PMI stabilised in October and the breakdown provides further evidence that the downturn in EM export growth may have bottomed out. That said, any recovery is likely to be slow... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Political uncertainty reigns in Argentina and Chile The victory for Peronist Alberto Fernández in Argentina’s presidential election on Sunday provoked a small negative shock in local financial markets. And the fact that he has done little to soothe... 1st November 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Tepid recovery on the horizon Our Trackers suggest that growth slowed across large parts of the emerging world in Q3. But aggregate EM growth is probably close to bottoming out and we expect that it will strengthen a little in... 30th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Counting the cost of the wave of protests in EMs While protests have spread across several EMs, most notably Hong Kong, parts of Latin America and Lebanon, there is no mechanical link between unrest and economic growth and asset prices. 25th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
