Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s slow recovery, forecast downgrades, rate cuts The Brazilian Q4 GDP data released this week confirmed that the economy fell short of expectations again in 2019 and, with the coronavirus likely to weigh on the economy over the coming months, we’ve... 6th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2019) Brazil’s relatively strong 0.5% q/q GDP growth rate recorded in Q4 masked a sharp loss of momentum late in the quarter. Taken together with growing headwinds from the effects of the coronavirus more... 4th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: the impact of the coronavirus The spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the global economy. This Update sets out the revisions to our views for Latin America in more detail. Policymakers... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Coronavirus: five points on the hit to EM activity so far This Activity Monitor outlines five key points on the coronavirus fallout for EMs, including what we can say about the impact so far. At the very least, it looks like the virus will cause aggregate EM... 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil in disarray, hawkish Banxico, Ecuador’s bonds A worrying flare-up in Brazilian domestic politics, alongside mounting coronavirus fears and a widening current account deficit, is likely to keep Brazil’s financial markets and the real under... 28th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin American markets in the firing line Latin American currencies and equities have been among the worst performers in the emerging world this month as fears about the spread of the coronavirus have intensified. The region has limited... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers among most exposed to coronavirus fallout The economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak is likely to be particularly severe for a number of frontier markets. Due to its deep integration into global supply chains, Vietnam’s economy will... 27th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How much will recent currency falls raise inflation? We estimate that the coronavirus-related sell-off in EM currencies will push up inflation over the next year by 0.6-0.7%-pts in Russia, Turkey and South Africa, reinforcing our view that easing cycles... 25th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s RRRs, Mexican optimism, Argentine debt saga Moves by Brazil’s central bank this week, including a large cut in required reserve ratios, suggest that policymakers are increasingly concerned about the faltering economic recovery. Comments from... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Coronavirus starting to hit EM trade There are early signs that the economic disruption resulting from China’s measures to contain the coronavirus is hitting supply chains and trade in Emerging Asia. There is also some tentative evidence... 21st February 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New BRL forecast, limited Banxico cuts, Arg. haircut The Brazilian central bank’s interventions have stabilised the real over the past 24 hours, but we think the recovery will soon run out of steam and have actually cut our end-year forecast to 4.50/$... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s next for Latam dollar bond spreads? Latin American dollar bonds have performed relatively well since fears related to the coronavirus started to weigh on the region’s financial markets. But if commodity prices and currencies in the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central bank responses to the coronavirus fallout The economic disruption from the coronavirus outbreak will lead to further rate cuts in much of Emerging Asia. And in those countries where currencies have fallen sharply, the moves have not been big... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Buenos Aires bluff backfires, Chilean growth rebounds Argentine policymakers endured two setbacks this week, after the province of Buenos Aires failed to reprofile a $250mn capital payment and only 10% of investors accepted a sovereign debt swap worth $1... 7th February 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Coronavirus: the financial risks for EMs The coronavirus outbreak could expose financial vulnerabilities in China and other EMs if factory and other workplace closures are extended. Within China, property developers are particularly... 6th February 2020 · 6 mins read
