Latin America Economics Update Are Latin American policymakers doing enough? Policymakers in Peru and Chile have been quick to introduce economic policy and containment measures in response to the coronavirus, but peers elsewhere – particularly in Brazil and Mexico – have made... 31st March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Would capital controls work in EMs? In the face of rapid capital outflows, EMs may turn to capital controls to stabilise balance of payments positions. Such measures might help to stave off crises in some countries (particularly if they... 31st March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM financial vulnerabilities greatest? The impact of global measures to contain the coronavirus will result in a steep fall in EM GDP this year. And the collapse in output, spike in capital outflows and plunge in commodity prices could... 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro behind the curve, Ecuador debt talks Confirmed cases of the coronavirus have surged to nearly 3,000 in Brazil over the past week, and the stumbling response from President Bolsonaro could deepen and prolong the economic damage. Elsewhere... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America set for a deep recession The outbreak of the coronavirus in Latin America has developed rapidly over the past few weeks. This Chart Book will focus on the most timely measures of activity to get a better sense of the... 27th March 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM capital flows: bank flows are the big risk The dislocation in global financial markets has led to large capital outflows from EM debt and equity markets, which has caused financial conditions to tighten. And the economic effects could be much... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of sovereign defaults? A record number of sovereign dollar bonds are now trading at distressed levels, although these are mostly those of smaller EM governments. Among the most highly distressed sovereigns, Zambia and... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Gauging the impact of Lat Am currency falls The turmoil in Latin American currency markets will push up inflation, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia, and it already appears to have resulted in strains in corporate bond markets. One... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Set for sharp falls in output, more rate cuts We now think that the growing economic damage caused by the coronavirus will result in falls in GDP across Latin America. For the region as a whole, we expect that output will decline by about 2% this... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs and the impact of containment measures The proliferation of measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus as well as shifts in consumer behaviour will have a severe effect on retail, accommodation, recreation and transport sectors across... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have generally tightened more in Latin America (particularly Mexico) than in the rest of the emerging world in recent weeks. This presents another reason to think that activity... 18th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs would struggle to contain an outbreak? Extremely dense populations in urban areas, poor healthcare provision, and limited ability to impose quarantine measures mean that countries in South and South-East Asia, as well as Egypt and Nigeria... 18th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM financial conditions: Alarm bells starting to ring The broad-based tightening in EM financial conditions in recent days has been similar in scale to the onset of the global financial crisis. Conditions are now particularly restrictive outside of the... 16th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New forecasts, limited policy responses It now seems likely that the effects of the coronavirus will take a heavier toll on Latin American economies than we previously thought, so we’ve revised down our 2020 growth forecasts across the... 13th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are EM external vulnerabilities largest? If the recent tightening of external financing conditions is sustained, it would result in severe balance of payments strains for the usual suspects (Turkey and Argentina) as well as some of the... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Counting the cost of lower oil prices The latest fall in oil prices will aggravate Venezuela’s crisis and increase the risk of a sovereign default in Ecuador. Elsewhere, there is likely to be a hit to growth in Mexico and Colombia. And... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
