Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s hawks, Brazil’s Speaker, truckers’ strike The minutes to the latest Brazilian central bank decision show that the hawkish contingent on Copom is larger and more vocal than we had anticipated. But the weakness of the labour market figures... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The solid 3.1% q/q rise in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 meant that the economy had recouped over 70% of its losses from the first half of 2020. However, the recent surge in new COVID-19 cases will cause the... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack A challenging Q1 The surge in COVID-19 cases and tightening of containment measures across most of the region are likely to bring the economic recovery in Latin America to a standstill in Q1. High-frequency mobility... 28th January 2021 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Vaccines won’t heal all scars While vaccines offer Latin America a route out of the crisis, lingering public debt issues will hold back the regional recovery and raise the risk of long-lasting economic scarring. As a result, after... 26th January 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The small rise in Mexican inflation, to 3.3% y/y over the first half of January, was largely driven by higher fuel prices and is unlikely to be a major concern for the central bank. We continue to... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom unlikely to hike rates as much as most expect The Brazilian central bank’s decision to remove its forward guidance at last night’s meeting indicates that Copom is preparing the ground to raise interest rates. But we doubt that policymakers will... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key challenges for Brazil in 2021 Brazil was Latin America’s economic outperformer last year, but the outlook for this year is increasingly challenging and we expect that the economy will fall behind its regional peers in the coming... 20th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s new virus variant, Chile’s FX intervention Brazil’s government will begin its vaccination programme next week but, in the near term, the severity of its COVID-19 outbreak and the discovery of a more infectious variant means lockdown measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico set to tolerate higher inflation We think that the Mexican central bank’s (Banxico’s) reaction function will gradually tilt towards tolerating higher inflation. As a result, we think that interest rates in Mexico will stay low for... 14th January 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 1.1% m/m rise in Mexican industrial output in November, coupled with more timely auto production data, suggests that the sector added around 1.5%-pts to q/q GDP growth in Q4. Moreover, we... 11th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Jabs arriving as second waves hit The escalation of new COVID-19 infections and tightening of restrictions across the region, most recently in Bogotá and Buenos Aires, poses a clear downside risk to our GDP forecasts for the first... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The solid 1.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in November, coupled with strong surveys for December, suggests that the sector may have added some 0.5-0.6%-pts to q/q GDP growth in Q4. But... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The further fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.2% in December, was largely driven by a drop in food inflation. With headline inflation likely to stay within Banxico’s 2-4% target range in the coming... 7th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec.) The further fall in Mexico’s headline inflation, to 3.2% y/y in the first two weeks of December, was largely driven by a drop in food inflation. Nonetheless, underlying price pressures remain muted... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Dec. 2020) The softer-than-expected Brazilian mid-month inflation figure for December, of 4.2% y/y, suggests that the earlier spike in inflation has now passed its peak. Coupled with rising new COVID-19 cases... 22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
