Long Run Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q3 2020) The 5.2% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q3 may seem small relative to the 13.5% q/q drop in Q2. But the recovery was accelerating through the quarter, and we think that output will return to its pre... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2020) The 8.7% q/q rebound in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 meant output was still 9% below its pre-virus level by the end of the quarter. Although hopes for a vaccine have brightened the outlook, weak fiscal... 17th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccines, impeachment & elections News of a potential vaccine breakthrough provides an upside risk to our GDP growth forecasts, but the crisis will still leave a legacy of higher debt and unemployment in Latin America. The impeachment... 13th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) The Mexican headline industrial production figure for September, which showed that output was flat from August, masks a welcome pick-up in growth in the key manufacturing sector. Even so, it’s clear... 11th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Peru’s latest political crisis The impeachment of Peru’s president, Martín Vizcarra, has rattled the country’s financial markets and may pave the way for looser (and more populist) fiscal measures in the coming months. Given the... 11th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Oct.) Mexican headline inflation inched up further, to 4.1% y/y last month, but that mainly reflects a rise in food inflation and underlying price pressures are stabilising. Taking that together with the... 9th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Post-US election fallout, BCB rate hikes still a way off The most likely outcome from the US election – a Biden win alongside a divided Senate – is arguably the best possible result for Latin America. Mexico will probably face a less antagonistic trading... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2020) The further rise in Brazilian inflation to 3.9% y/y in October, from 3.1% y/y in September, was (again) mostly driven by higher food inflation. We don’t think that the central bank will be too... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Sep.) September’s solid 2.6% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production took output above its pre-crisis level, and suggests the economy continued to fare well at the end of Q3. The latest surveys point to... 4th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latest surveys suggest Brazil remains ahead of Mexico We think that the latest activity surveys for October may be overstating growth in Brazil, although they reinforce the view that its economy remains ahead of Mexico at this stage of the recovery. 3rd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update US election & Latin America: what’s at stake? The result of Tuesday’s US election is unlikely to be as important for Mexico as it was four years ago, with domestic factors remaining key to its bleak economic outlook. However, Biden’s climate... 2nd November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil inflation fears, Pemex profits, Chile’s vote Concerns about rising inflation in Brazil are growing, we don’t think these fears are a bit overblown; underlying prices pressures remain soft. This is likely to remain the case, suggesting the... 30th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) The 12% q/q rebound in Mexico’s GDP in Q3 still left output some 8% below its Q4 2019 level. And the recovery lost significant momentum throughout the quarter – a trend which we expect to continue. 30th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Regional recovery slowing The latest hard activity data show that the pace of recovery eased across most of the region in August and more timely figures suggest that the trend continued in late Q3 and early Q4, indicating that... 28th October 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The potential fallout from Chile’s referendum The overwhelming vote in favour of rewriting Chile’s constitution will set the ball rolling towards entrenching a larger role of the state in the economy. And it may cause the central bank to adopt a... 26th October 2020 · 3 mins read
