Latin America Economics Weekly Vaccine plans and politics, Cuba libre-lisation Policymakers across Latin America are stepping up efforts to distribute vaccines, with Mexico and Chile set to roll out the (approved) Pzifer/BioNTech jab within just a few weeks. However, most of the... 18th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: dovish tilt suggests easing cycle to resume In typically conservative fashion, Banxico’s left its policy rate at 4.25% despite the weakness of inflation and the deteriorating near-term outlook. However, the dovish statement reaffirms our view... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Difficult end to a dismal year Recoveries in Latin America are under threat from a fresh rise in new COVID-19 cases, particularly in Brazil, Mexico and Chile. Policymakers in all three countries have tightened restrictions which... 16th December 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New faces at Banxico, BanRep and Brazil’s Congress Mexican President López Obrador’s third appointment to Banxico’s Board, Galia Borja Gómez, to replace Deputy Governor Javier Guzmán, could mark a gradual shift away from the central bank’s traditional... 11th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five things to watch for in 2021 Latin America will be glad to see the back of 2020, although 2021 will hardly be plain sailing. In general, the hangover from weak public finances will hold back the region’s economic recovery... 10th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom (slowly) laying the ground for tightening The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s decision (to keep the Selic rate at 2.00%) suggests that it is starting to consider interest rate hikes. But we think the shift towards monetary... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Comparing the outlook for equities in Latam and EM Asia We think that the dramatic outperformance recently of equities in Latin America in general versus their peers in EM Asia has much further to run, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 9th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s recovery, two years of Amlo The recent Q3 GDP data from Brazil confirmed that its economy has suffered much less than others in Latin America, largely due to the substantial fiscal support offered by the government. One... 4th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Vaccines to deliver healthy dose of support to Lat Am Given the recent positive vaccine developments, we are revising up our GDP forecasts across the region. Among the major economies, Chile and Mexico are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries while... 3rd December 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Assessing the state of recoveries in Latin America A fresh rise in COVID-19 cases in Brazil and Mexico threaten to derail their recoveries in late-Q4 and Q1. On the flipside, the near-term outlook is relatively bright in Argentina, Peru and Chile. 1st December 2020 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The reversal of relative fortunes within EM equities We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 30th November 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s current account surplus, Brazil payrolls The eye-catching swing in Mexico’s current account, from a small deficit in Q2 to a huge surplus in Q3, was driven by a much stronger rebound in goods exports than imports last quarter. While the... 27th November 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Not all doom and gloom for Latin America The positive news on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines offers hope for the region’s economy. As things stand, Chile and, to a lesser extent, Mexico look well placed to benefit given their sizeable pre... 25th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Nov.) The fall in Mexican inflation, to 3.4% y/y, in the middle of this month, supports our view that Banxico will cut its policy rate by a further 25bp, which we now expect to happen at next month’s... 24th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Andean pension withdrawals, Pemex financing Amidst the recent political turmoil in Peru, a second pension withdrawal bill was passed through Congress and a similar plan is in the pipeline in Chile. While they would boost private consumption in... 20th November 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA vs. the Argentine peso: what next? Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) is running out of FX reserves to prop up the peso and it may soon devalue the currency. Even so, it would take an overhaul of the monetary policy setup, probably under... 19th November 2020 · 6 mins read
