Latin America Chart Pack Populism rearing its head…again The tide is turning towards populist policymaking in Latin America once again. Most notably, Brazilian President Bolsonaro’s move to fire Petrobras’ CEO, Roberto Castello Branco, may be a prelude to... 25th February 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Feb) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.6% y/y, in the middle of this month shifts the balance a bit further an interest rate hike at the next Copom meeting in March, but there are reasons to think that... 24th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Staying relatively upbeat on Peru’s economy The strong Q4 GDP data for Peru suggests that the economy was heading into 2021 with significant momentum. And while there are growing downside risks from rising COVID-19 cases and a politically... 23rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Four points on the Petrobras debacle The Brazilian president’s decision to sack the Petrobras CEO last Friday points to greater government intervention in the economy and could be a prelude to a looser fiscal stance too. This suggests... 22nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s blackouts, Argentine policymaking woes The energy crisis in Texas has led to power outages across Mexico this week, particularly in the northern manufacturing heartland, which we estimate may knock about 5% off industrial production this... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Another look at Brazil’s fiscal problem The discussion in Brazil around extending emergency fiscal support reinforces our view that the government will ultimately cast aside the spending cap. That could put the public debt trajectory onto... 17th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4 2020) The robust 6.0% q/q rise in Colombia’s GDP in Q4 marks a solid end to 2020, but the recovery will slow sharply in Q1 due to the tightening of restrictions. 15th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB outlook, Chile’s vaccine drive, Ecuador’s election The approval of a bill to make Brazil’s central bank (BCB) independent could, in the long term, help to reduce inflation and bond yields. In the meantime, the BCB’s governor has sought to downplay... 12th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico in a dovish mood but additional cuts unlikely The unanimous decision by Banxico’s Board to cuts its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.00%, suggests that policymakers are more dovish than we had thought. But the initial market reaction – significantly... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Latin America’s vaccine rollout Chile is motoring ahead in Latin America’s vaccine race and it may be on course to start lifting stringent lockdown measures by mid-Q2. Other countries may follow suit in Q3, which feeds into our... 11th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The small 0.1% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in December confirms that the economy lost significant momentum at the end of last year. The renewed economic weakness may help to convince... 11th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The rise in Mexican inflation in January makes Thursday’s interest rate decision a close call, although we still think a 25bp rate cut is more likely than not. Meanwhile, the further increase in... 9th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador votes, Brazil risks easing, Banxico to cut Sovereign debt risks in Ecuador will remain high regardless of Sunday’s election result and another debt restructuring is likely in the medium term. Even so, there could still be a window of... 5th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Second waves take steam out of Latin America’s recovery The latest high-frequency and survey data suggest that the region’s economic recovery slowed in January, with Colombia seemingly faring worst. That said, the early signs are that the economic fallout... 4th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX intervention: echoes of “currency wars” The announcement of FX purchase programmes by several EM central banks has evoked comparisons with the “currency wars” that followed the Global Financial Crisis. One lesson from this period is that FX... 4th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Ecuador election: all eyes on debt risks There seems to be little appetite for harsh IMF-mandated fiscal austerity among the leading candidates in Ecuador’s presidential election this week. The public finances will therefore remain in dire... 2nd February 2021 · 4 mins read
