Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s referendum, BCB’s autonomy Chile’s electorate is likely to vote in favour of having a new constitution on Sunday, which may start a long process towards entrenching greater state intervention in the economy. That would help to... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Asia leading the way The speed and strength of economic recoveries in emerging markets will continue to vary enormously by country, with China and some other parts of Asia leading and India, South Africa and much of Latin... 23rd October 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook An uphill struggle The picture has brightened for Latin America as new COVID-19 cases have fallen from their peaks, which should allow governments to ease restrictions and provide a boost to economic recoveries. Even so... 21st October 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly ARS adjustment inevitable, Bolivia’s election Pressure is mounting on Argentina’s central bank as it attempts to manage the peso with rapidly diminishing FX reserves. While policymakers have poured cold water on growing speculation of a currency... 16th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The US election and its impact on emerging markets Whatever the outcome of the US election, we expect that the trends of US-China decoupling and deglobalisation will continue. The election result could be pivotal for some EMs: a Joe Biden victory... 16th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile & Peru to benefit most from China’s recovery Latin America’s non-oil economies will see larger benefits than most other countries from China’s rebound. This provides grounds for cautious optimism about the prospects for Chile and Peru. But for... 13th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly IMF visits, fiscal space & protests It looks like the Mexican government will ignore the IMF’s advice this week that it should ramp up spending, adding to reasons to expect a weak recovery there. Brazil’s government, in contrast... 9th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Three points on the latest bout of EM capital outflows Daily data suggest that foreign investors have been net sellers of emerging market bonds and equities in recent weeks, but there are reasons not to be very concerned. 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Brazil break the spending cap? Pressure for loose fiscal policy in Brazil is likely to persist and we think that the spending cap will be cast aside in the coming years. The government is already testing the water with creative... 6th October 2020 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCRA changes tack, Brazil’s Renda Cidadã mess The announcement by Argentina’s central bank (BCRA) of a new monetary policy strategy, in which it will allow a ‘managed float’ of the peso, reduces the risk of the real exchange rate becoming... 2nd October 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Solid September PMIs, but recovery to lose steam September’s relatively strong batch of emerging market manufacturing PMIs suggests that recoveries in industrial production continued in September. But with the global rebound losing steam, growth in... 1st October 2020 · 3 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap The latest on sovereign debt restructurings Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Light at the end of the tunnel? The latest figures suggest that the number of COVID-19 infections in the region has passed its peak – new cases are down by 35-60% compared to their July/August peaks in most of the large Latin... 30th September 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recoveries entering a slower phase, China an exception The latest activity and mobility data indicate that the EM recovery has lost some steam in recent months and we expect the pace of recovery to remain slow-going in the coming quarters. The main... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of EM financial conditions EM financial conditions have tightened a little in recent weeks, although only in Turkey does this threaten to become a significant headwind to growth. Elsewhere, conditions remain very loose but the... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
