Latin America Economics Weekly Chile rate hikes on the horizon, Brazilian payrolls Chile’s central bank was notably less dovish at its meeting this week, supporting our view that the central bank will begin a tightening cycle later this year, most likely in Q4. Elsewhere, while... 1st April 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Headwinds to the recovery start to build The economic data out of the emerging world for Q1 look reasonably strong, but worsening COVID-19 outbreaks and a shift towards policy tightening are creating headwinds for some EMs. Activity in... 31st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Bumpy regional recovery faces another hurdle Latin America’s recovery has been far from plain sailing, and the recent rise in new COVID-19 cases across the region is yet another setback. This is most worrying in Brazil, where the health system... 30th March 2021 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s rosy growth view, Buenos Aires bonds The minutes to Copom’s meeting last week outlined a rosy outlook for economic growth, but the dire incoming data add to the reasons to think that the monetary tightening cycle will probably be shorter... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian tax reform, vaccines and Brazil’s struggles A tax reform bill in Colombia, that will be sent to Congress next week, has slipped under the radar but this legislation could have a major bearing on the country’s sovereign investment grade rating... 19th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting financial repression in EMs The recent rise in EM sovereign bond yields will, if sustained, make public debt problems in some countries even worse. Those with large local currency debts may ultimately turn to financial... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Taper tantrum fears return EM financial markets have been hit this month by the rise in US Treasury yields, which has re-ignited some concerns about a re-run of the Taper Tantrum. So far, capital outflows from EMs have been... 16th March 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal worries in Brazil, Argentina’s inflation dilemma Fiscal concerns are growing in Brazil as Congress approved a bill yesterday which opens the door to more fiscal support (outside the limits of the spending cap). And pressure for higher public... 12th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s fiscal U-turn to support the recovery The Colombian government’s shift away from its austere fiscal stance will lead to higher public debt and, more likely than not, a loss of its sovereign investment grade rating. But, from an economic... 11th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we about to see a wave of EM rate hikes? Recent currency falls and rises in inflation have all but guaranteed interest rate hikes in Turkey and Brazil next week, and Russia’s central bank is likely to lay the groundwork for tightening too... 11th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising bond yields and the threat to EM debt burdens The rise US Treasury yields poses a risk for those EMs with large external financing needs such as Turkey as well as some smaller frontier markets, and could force central banks in these countries to... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo intervenes, Chile’s success, Brazil tumbling The Mexican government’s bill to partly reverse reforms in the electricity sector threatens to open up a Pandora’s box of legal wrangling and will further damage the prospects for private investment... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Bond market jitters unlikely to trigger spate of EM crises While further market turmoil is a risk over the coming quarters, the likelihood of outright banking, sovereign debt and currency crises among the large EMs is low. More acute vulnerabilities lie in... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap SDR allocation no panacea for distressed frontiers A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an... 3rd March 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs still point to further EM recovery February’s manufacturing PMIs released across the emerging world were the proverbial mixed bag but, taken together, generally point towards solid EM industrial production growth in the next month or... 1st March 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Banxico staying put, Brazil’s Petrobras mess The hit to Mexico’s financial markets during the recent rout in global bond markets adds to the reasons to think that Banxico’s easing cycle is done and dusted. Brazilian financial markets were also... 26th February 2021 · 6 mins read
