Emerging Markets Economics Update Taking stock of the latest EM virus trends Most EMs in Latin America, Africa and South Asia that were battling worryingly large virus outbreaks appear to have passed the peak in recent weeks. That should allow a gradual scaling back of... 29th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currencies under fire, Mexico’s tepid recovery While Latin American currencies have come under pressure this week, we think that they will rebound over the coming quarters as global risk appetite and commodity prices generally improve. Otherwise... 25th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Recovery now in a tougher phase After an initial burst of growth following the lifting of national lockdowns, the latest activity data and mobility indicators point to a slower pace of recovery in most EMs in recent months. This... 24th September 2020 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM food inflation set to ease A number of EMs – notably Brazil, Mexico and Korea – have experienced strong increases in food inflation in recent months, which have pushed up headline rates. But we think that food inflation in the... 24th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s cepo, Brazil’s fiscal saga continues The tightening of capital controls (“ el cepo”) in Argentina will give the central bank some breathing room as it attempts to manage the peso over the coming months. But Argentina’s experience using... 18th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Export recovery will be a long slog The rebound in EM exports continued in July, but further gains will be harder to come by from here. Indeed, the initial boost from re-opening economies is likely to fade and the slowing global... 17th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Our Tracker suggests that last month EMs suffered the largest net outflow of capital since the height of the market turmoil in March. Net outflows look set to persist in the coming months, although... 16th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s Federative Pact, assessing the MXN rally Brazil’s congress will reportedly receive a plan for the Federative Pact reform next week, which would ease concerns about the public finances. But we don’t think worries that the government might... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will EMs gain from China’s strong recovery? China’s strong economic recovery is likely to provide more of a support to the recovery in (non-oil) commodity producers in Latin America and Africa than it will in the rest of Asia. But we don’t... 10th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM easing cycles: revisiting lessons from the GFC The experience of the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) chimes with our EM rates view on two counts. The first is that easing cycles in many EMs are now at an end (Brazil) or will draw to... 9th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly A PMI puzzle, Brazil’s GDP oddities & budget A string of eye-catching economic data releases this week has fuelled yet more optimism about the strength of Brazil’s recovery. But digging into the details suggests that there may be less to some of... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those... 2nd September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs provide more evidence of uneven recovery The further rise in the EM manufacturing PMI to a nine-year high of 52.5 in August, from 51.4 in July, suggests that the EM recovery continued in the middle of Q3. But the rebound has been uneven... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina & the IMF, Banxico’s mixed signals Argentina’s government formally requested talks with the IMF over a new financing deal this week, but the conditions likely to be demanded by the Fund could prove to be a major sticking point... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Diverging outlook for Lat Am local currency bonds Local currency government bond markets in Latin America generally came under pressure this month, but we think that most will rally over the rest of the year. In Chile and Peru, while local currency... 27th August 2020 · 14 mins read
