UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jan.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase got off to a weak start in 2019, consistent with our view that lending and housing transactions will weaken again this year. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Jan.) January trade data showed that China’s gold imports surged but India’s imports were down on the month. We expect imports from both countries to decline in the months ahead as higher prices deter... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Next major adverse shock could come from computers The computer revolution is positive for economic growth, but it also means that technological risks must be added to the threats facing the global economy. While the economic impact of the internet... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker retail outlook to hold Dublin rents With consumer spending growth slowing and the boost to households from rising house prices fading, we think that prime high street rents in Dublin are likely to plateau over the next couple of years. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Could North Korea be the next Vietnam? Ahead of his meeting with Kim Jong Un in Hanoi this week, Donald Trump tweeted that North Korea had “more potential for rapid growth than any other”. While North Korea’s natural resources... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Higher services inflation a reflection of strong demand There is little evidence to suggest that inflation in the services sector is being boosted by “one-off” factors, as has been suggested by several MPC members. Instead, it appears to be a reflection of... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Export volumes should fall this year The export climate index fell to a three-year low in January and suggests that exports will barely grow at all this year. The monthly trade data have been even more downbeat as they showed export... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit: A pivotal week for the economy and the pound By significantly increasing or decreasing the chances of a no deal Brexit, this week could prove pivotal for the economy and the pound. 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil, soybeans and the trade war Brazil would be the biggest loser if China increases its imports of US soybeans as part of a trade deal. But the overall impact on Brazil’s export revenues and overall GDP growth would probably be... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy: notes from the ground We have just returned from a day of meetings with clients and local contacts in Rome. In this Update, we summarise the key takeaways from the visit. While the banks are heading in the right direction... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Explaining the weakness in Mexican industry The slump in Mexican industry late last year largely reflects domestic problems, particularly in the mining sector. But with the US economy now coming off the boil, the external environment will be an... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily More to the surge in the Shanghai Composite than meets the eye 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria: protests add to headwinds facing economy The recent protests in Algeria threaten to worsen the country’s economic problems. We already expected sharp falls in the dinar and much weaker economic growth over the next couple of years, but the... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices likely to drop back despite trade talks The prices of many major commodities, including oil, gold and copper, hit multi-month highs this week, but we think that almost all will fall sooner rather than later. The rally this week was fuelled... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Uncertain Poloz ponders powers Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz used a speech this week to argue that relying on monetary policy alone to counteract economic downturns risks further stoking financial imbalances. While Poloz... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
