Japan Economics Weekly Growth outlook worsening The survey evidence suggests that the economy is losing momentum and we’ve lowered our GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 0.5%. If the economy records yet another quarter of falling output, we suspect PM... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The US has now cemented its position as the largest oil producer in the world. Unsurprisingly, inventories rose, despite record-high exports, denting hopes of a further oil price rally. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch The shifting nature of US-Saudi oil relations There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Activity expected to slow The latest data paint a mixed picture of the performance of the Swiss and Nordic economies at the end of 2018, with signs of weakness in Switzerland and Sweden offset in part by robust quarterly GDP... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing sector has lost more momentum in Q1 February’s flash PMIs show that the manufacturing downturn has deepened throughout advanced economies. The one comfort is that the surveys reported a pick-up in services sector activity. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Safe-haven flows likely to keep Bund yields very low this year 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) A pick-up in home purchase mortgage applications at the start of the year suggests the 1.2% m/m drop in existing home sales in January will soon be reversed. But the bigger picture is that a slowing... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain weak for most of this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Thai baht continues to strengthen despite political risks The possibility of political unrest ahead of Thailand’s election next month is one of the key risks facing the economy, but so far at least, the uncertainty is having little impact on the currency... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Feb.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation up to mid-February, combined with the ambitious pension reform presented to Congress yesterday, will keep interest rate hikes off the table in the coming... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian outperformance driven by one-off boosts Hungary was one of the fastest-growing EMs in the final quarter of last year. But almost all this was due to temporary factors and we expect that GDP growth will slow sharply this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update High inventories a downside risk to growth Against the backdrop of slowing global demand growth, the high level of manufacturing inventories in Canada is an underappreciated downside risk to GDP growth. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Households well placed to step up spending While the uncertainty caused by Brexit is hampering consumption, households’ finances are fundamentally sound. Indeed, with earnings growth at a decade-high in December and inflation below its 2%... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Further rate hikes likely in Tunisia, the Qatar blockade The Tunisian central bank hiked its key policy rate aggressively this week and we think that further steps will be needed to correct the country’s large economic imbalances. Meanwhile, the UAE has... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
