Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about EM central bank independence? The lesson from Turkey over the last few years is that it takes time for political pressure on the central bank to have negative macroeconomic consequences. With this in mind, while recent... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) February’s strong batch of ESIs suggest that resilient domestic demand is helping the economies of Central and Eastern Europe to cope with economic weakness in Germany. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain weak in 2019 Hong Kong’s economy ended last year on a weak note as exports slumped and household spending softened. We think growth will remain subdued in the months ahead. The relatively expansionary budget... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Egypt: improved fiscal health to support faster growth The recent improvement in Egypt’s budget position will be enough to keep the government’s debt ratio on a downward trend. Government bond yields are likely to fall and austerity looks set to come to... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fiscal stimulus on its way Developments this month suggest that governments in parts of the region are embarking on fiscal stimulus to boost growth and prop up popular support. Recent policy announcements in Russia and Turkey... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Next suite of Brexit votes announced The sharp rise in the pound to $1.32/$ and to a two-year high of €1.16/£ this morning is due to two developments on Brexit that appear to reduce the chances of the UK leaving the EU without a deal on... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No easy choice on no deal tariffs The Government has the unenviable choice of deciding whether households or firms should bear the brunt of higher tariffs in a no deal Brexit. It will probably opt to expose some firms to more external... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to hike rates again this cycle Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the FOMC’s “patient” mantra in his testimony to Congress today, but we think the Fed is already done hiking interest rates. With GDP growth slowing below potential... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Underperformance of Indian equities likely to prove temporary 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Dec.) Annual house price growth has continued to slow, and is likely to reach 2% by the end of the year. But that shouldn’t prevent a modest recovery in single-family housing starts, which ended 2018 at a... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) Today’s data show global steel output stuttered out of the starting blocks at the beginning of 2019 and we expect output growth to remain lacklustre this year. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Growth soft at the start of 2019 The Q4 EM GDP data released so far have generally been a bit stronger than might have been expected, in light of concerns about the health of the global economy. But more timely data suggest that... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early results point to narrow win for Buhari Results released so far suggest that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari probably won Saturday’s election. Another term for Mr. Buhari would mean the continuation of his growth-sapping policies. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic growth slowing below trend The weak incoming data mean that economic growth is on track to slow below its 2% potential pace this quarter. That kills off any remaining prospect of further Fed rate hikes and, with economic growth... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Another look at the slowdown in the euro-zone The slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in the second half of last year resulted from weaker exports and domestic demand, about half of which was due to problems in the car industry. But more recently... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to keep rates on hold until beyond 2020 We have removed the single 25bp interest rate hike that we had pencilled in for Sweden this year, and forecast rates to remain unchanged at their current level into 2021. In fact, with risks to... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
