UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) A large increase in development lending was not enough to offset weak net lending for standing property. With the outlook for investment and development activity is subdued, it seems unlikely will... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jan.) January’s surprise jump in house purchase mortgage approvals shouldn’t be overplayed. Given the weak data on buyer demand and house price expectations falling, we expect mortgage approvals to weaken... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvement in China’s PMI unlikely to last The latest pick-up in the unofficial PMI data does not change our expectation of a slowdown in China’s economy, which underpins our forecast of mostly weaker commodity prices, especially industrial... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) The slight pick-up in the Swiss and Swedish manufacturing PMIs in February provides some comfort that the recent downward pressure on their industrial sectors has not intensified. However, weakness in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in February after rolling power cuts hit sentiment in the sector. But we doubt that the actual fall in activity will be as severe as the survey suggest. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria set for policy stability, renewed risk of Kenya cut Markets surged when Muhammadu Buhari was elected president of Nigeria in 2015, but they slumped following his re-election this week. This is just another sign that investors have soured on the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Investment will be a drag on growth before long Data on investment spending released this week sent conflicting messages. We put more weight on the dismal construction work done figures and have penciled in falling business investment in the fourth... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Property prices near bubble peak, Abe gets a lifeline The LDP’s proposal to do away with term limits for the Prime Minister will make little difference to the outlook for Japan’s economy. Meanwhile, we aren’t overly worried about the continued surge in... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Limited economic and market fallout from Kashmir Developments in Kashmir this week have left tensions between the Indian and Pakistani government at their most fraught in years, but the economic and market impact of the crisis is likely to be small. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Deleveraging delusions, market exuberance Policymakers are already billing the deleveraging campaign a success. But we doubt that the recent stabilisation of the debt ratio will prove durable. Meanwhile, Chinese equity prices have jumped... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to cut macro forecasts, leave policy unchanged The ECB is likely to reduce its forecasts for economic growth at its meeting next week and to again stress that it has the necessary tools to respond if the recent slowdown worsens. But we think it... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Boost from trade talks to prove temporary Oil and industrial commodity prices rose in February on hopes of a US-China trade deal. However, even if there is a deal, we forecast that prices will fall back owing to lower demand as global... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q4) Colombian GDP growth edged up from 2.7% y/y in Q3 to 2.8% y/y in Q4, but while the consensus expects growth to be stronger this year, we expect it to slow. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Export prospects further deteriorate The decline in the global manufacturing PMI to a two-year low in January suggests that prospects for Canadian exporters have deteriorated further. On past form, the global PMI is broadly consistent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Data scrutiny to destroy case for policy tightening The latest communications from advanced economy central banks imply that they have shifted away from a normalisation path towards closely monitoring incoming data to ascertain whether additional... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Robust payrolls remain a bright spot We anticipate a robust 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, while a post-shutdown rebound in household employment will cause the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.9%. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
