Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension plan ambitious, but just a starting point The Brazilian government’s pension reform plan unveiled today lives up to high hopes and is likely to sustain the rally in local markets over the coming weeks. But history suggests that the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: budget reflects Eskom’s problems The wider-than-expected South African fiscal deficit projections announced in today’s budget are a result of measures to deal with the financial troubles of Eskom and other struggling state-owned... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jan.) Global production growth plummeted in January, but given that input costs are falling, we think that output growth will recover later this year. 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Foreign debt not a major risk in the near term Concerns about China’s external debt have increased recently as interest rates abroad have risen and slowing domestic economic momentum has put firms’ balance sheets under strain. But much of the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil price rally to prove fleeting The recent surge in the oil price reflects concerns about a supply shortfall, on the back of sharply lower production in some key OPEC producers. That said, there are already signs that growth in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian credit recovery has further to run The recent recovery in Russian private sector credit growth is likely to continue over the coming quarters, supporting our view that, despite the weakness of recent activity data, economic growth will... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iron ore price to tumble, but not yet We have revised up our iron ore price forecast following the disaster at the Córrego do Feijão iron ore mine and its aftermath, given the negative implications for supply. However, with demand set to... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation dropped by more than expected in January and is likely to fall further in the middle of the year, increasing the chances that the rate cuts that we expected in 2020 will be... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Pre-election loosening to provide short-lived support Measures to loosen both fiscal and monetary policy announced this month could provide a small boost to demand in the near-term. The finance ministry made a clear bid in the interim budget to shore up... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: a primer on pension reform Rumours about the shape of the Brazilian government’s pension reform that will be presented to congress on Wednesday suggest that it is ambitious and would, if implemented in full, stabilise the... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Jan.) The slowdown in commercial property investment appears to have accelerated in January, indicating ongoing concerns about a Brexit deal. This uncertainty is expected to be temporary, but it is unlikely... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rental growth in Lisbon to stall in 2020 After two strong years for Lisbon office rents, a rise in development activity, alongside fading occupier demand, is set to curb rental growth in 2020. What’s more, rents could potentially fall in... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Core inflation set to drop back Temporary factors that boosted inflation in 2018 are fading and recent declines in unit labour costs growth suggest that core inflation will fall this year. That supports our view that the Bank of... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
