China Chart Pack Exports now showing impact of tariffs The impact of US tariffs on China’s exports was initially masked by firms rushing out shipments of unaffected products in an attempt to beat any tariffs that came in later. That “front-running” seems... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) The last set of public finances figures released before the Spring Statement put the government on track to undershoot the OBR’s borrowing forecast of £25.5bn in the 2018-19 financial year. That gives... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s Composite PMI provides some reassurance that the euro-zone economy as a whole is still growing. But industrial output is falling, and with the global economy slowing and trade tensions... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: rates to remain on hold this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, and given the improved performance of the rupiah as well as the less hawkish tone of the central bank’s press conference, we are... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update BTPs to underperform other peripheral bonds We think that safe-haven flows will keep government bond yields across the euro-zone’s “core” low this year. And, we wouldn’t be surprised if yields in Germany even turned negative as they did in 2016... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) January’s Polish industrial production data will help to allay fears about an abrupt slowdown. But it still appears that Poland’s economy as a whole lost steam at the start of this year and, as... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The housing downturn isn’t over yet The rise in auction clearing rates in early February is probably just temporary. Housing remains overvalued and other leading indicators point to a continued decline in house prices. We therefore... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rise in employment combined with a stable unemployment rate should give the RBA some confidence in its optimistic forecasts, but we think the labour market will worsen again soon. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade tensions not to blame for slowing world exports We think that tariffs imposed in the past year can account for only a small part of the slowdown in global trade growth over the same period. The threat of future tariffs might also have hit trade... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the Pemex problem The Mexican government’s bailout for Pemex last week is unlikely to solve the company’s fundamental issues, which stem from an extremely heavy tax burden and chronically low productivity. In the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash-out refinancing set for further gains High levels of home equity and falling mortgage interest rates mean the number of cash-out refinances will reach a 10-year high over the next couple of years. But tight credit standards and cautious... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the return of deflation mean for the Gulf? Weak domestic demand has pushed several Gulf economies into deflation, although most places are well placed to deal with the negative repercussions. If anything, a period of deflation is what is... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Gold & S&P 500 unlikely to move in same direction much longer 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic weakness adds to global concerns With the global outlook continuing to darken, the US had until recently remained a relative bright spot. But the latest data suggest that outperformance may have been short-lived. January’s drop in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Slow market squeezes mortgage lenders Facing weak demand, lenders have cut their interest margins to compete for business, dampening the impact that rate hikes have had on mortgage pricing. But looking ahead, there is limited room for... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks take a dovish turn The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in many emerging markets, combined with growing expectations for looser monetary policy in the developed world, has prompted a dovish... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
