UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Feb.) February’s weak result for house price growth shows a market struggling under the weight of Brexit uncertainty. Yet, even if a Brexit deal is reached fairly soon, we think that house price growth will... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Soft inflation points to rates staying low for longer Inflation has fallen across the region at the start of this year, and is likely to stay relatively soft in the coming months. One common driver of weaker inflation has been lower fuel inflation. But... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side-line Given the weakness of the latest economic data, the Bank of Canada is set to remain on the side-line next week. It will probably reiterate that further interest rate hikes will eventually be needed... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch There may be trouble ahead … Since the start of 2019, commodity indices have increased at the same time as a host of asset classes, including US and emerging market equities. This Commodities Watch will explore whether this... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap External pressures keep frontiers in tightening mode The monetary tightening cycles that began last year in many of the large EMs are petering out fairly quickly. But in many of the smaller Frontier markets, interest rate hikes are still at the top of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude inventories recorded a significant draw, which was impressive considering US production continued to tick up and is now at a record-high. 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would cutting HTB hit first-time buyers? An end to Help-to-Buy would cause only a minor disruption to first-time buyer housing demand. After all, while the scheme has allowed some FTBs to purchase a home with a smaller deposit, the number of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders right to feel confident The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The Bank of Canada is unlikely to put a lot of weight on the sharp drop in headline inflation in January, given that it was caused by the notoriously volatile energy and airfare components. But if... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Uncertainty holding back investment activity Investment market activity was weak in January, with just £2.6bn deals completed. Overseas interest was particularly soft, providing an indication that, as the Brexit deadline approaches, unease may... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A lot of good news on trade is now discounted Although there is no one definitive measure, most evidence suggests that as much as half of last year’s hit to global markets from worries about a US-China trade war has now unwound. Given the type of... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Conditions not conducive to a “profitless” S&P 500 rally The S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 11% so far this year in response to a shift in Fed policy and a thawing of the US/China trade war. Nonetheless, a further rally is unlikely given the darkening... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about the crisis in Kashmir? The fall in Pakistan’s stock market today is the first sign that investors are starting to become concerned about the escalating crisis in Kashmir. The most likely outcome is that tensions are dialled... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Feb.) February’s euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) confirmed the message from other surveys that despite weakness in the industrial sector, the overall economy is still growing. That said, the... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
