Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rates in Egypt and Tunisia head in opposite directions Interest rate moves in Egypt and Tunisia this month highlighted the important role that balance of payments positions are playing in monetary policy decisions. In Egypt, tighter fiscal policy and the... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Risk of a “no-deal” Brexit has not diminished completely 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts A weaker outlook for the retail sector drove a reduction in the IPF Consensus forecast for all-property total returns this year to 2.4% y/y. Echoing our own forecasts, outside of the retail sector... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna likely to be weaker than CNB expects The Czech koruna is likely to defy the central bank’s (CNB’s) expectation that it will appreciate over the coming quarters. One consequence of this is that policymakers will probably raise interest... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Swedish krona unlikely to recover much lost ground Although the Swedish krona rose following stronger-than-expected GDP data on Thursday, we doubt that it will rebound much, as we are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response GDP (Q4) Indian GDP data show that although the economy slowed in the final quarter of last year, it is still continuing to grow at a decent pace. The economy should perform relatively well in the first half... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor End of QT unlikely to affect bond valuations much In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is deciding how and when to end its balance sheet rundown. Although some officials have indicated that it could finish... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q4) The meagre 0.1% q/q rise in Brazilian GDP in Q4 confirmed that, despite the surge in business and consumer confidence, there has been no Bolsonaro boost for the real economy yet. This supports our... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update LNG price slump is not all about the weather The plunge in the spot LNG price is in large part the result of a mild northern hemisphere winter. As such, prices may rebound if the weather normalises, but rapid growth in supply will prevent... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland GDP (Q4) Q4 GDP data released this morning show that large parts of the region ended 2018 on a high note. However, more timely indicators suggest that activity has lost momentum into 2019. Against a backdrop... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The knowns and the unknowns of Brexit This Update cuts through the Brexit quagmire by highlighting four things we now know about Brexit, four things we don’t, and four implications for the economy and the financial markets. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The small rise GfK/NOP’s headline measure of consumer confidence in February leaves it only a touch above January’s five-year low, despite a healthy economic backdrop for consumers. As a result... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea set for an extended pause The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged today at 1.75%, but sounded a little more worried than previously about the outlook for the economy. We are sticking with our view that interest... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
