Capital Daily Prospects for Chinese equities still poor despite MSCI decision 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Prime property valuations steady as risk aversion rises In light of the changes to our valuation weightings this quarter, many markets are closer to fair value than in our last Valuation Monitor. That said, the majority of property markets (51 out of 93)... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slows; US-China edge closer to deal The 2.6% annualised gain in fourth-quarter GDP was a little better than the markets were braced for, but the bottom line is that growth has now been slowing for the past few quarters. We expect that... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeowner vacancy to stay low despite slowdown The homeowner vacancy rate dropped to a 25-year low at the end of last year, and we expect it will stay low even as existing home sales tread water over the next couple of years. Low interest rates... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2018) On the basis of this latest set of woeful GDP figures, the Bank of Canada must surely be considering following the Fed and abandoning any talk of further interest rate hikes at next week’s policy... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Impressive GDP figures mask domestic weakness Q4 GDP data from Switzerland and the Nordics released this week mostly showed impressive rates of growth – particularly in Sweden. However, upon closer inspection, the data masked signs of domestic... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone growing slowly, Italy and Germany risks The survey evidence continues to suggest that the euro-zone economy is growing, but that it is doing so only slowly, with the services sector doing all of the heavy lifting. The industrial sector... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Chances of no deal receding This week’s political developments mean that the chances of no deal have fallen, which probably justifies the jump in sterling. But the real economy is still suffering from Brexit uncertainty. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jan.) The solid increase in unsecured household borrowing in January suggests that the UK’s scheduled departure from the EU and concerns of a disorderly exit were not causing consumers or lenders to become... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inventories data also hint at a slowdown A look at recent figures on stockbuilding and inventories provide another reason to think that the economic cycle has turned downwards. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New, lower, end-2019 forecast for 10yr Treasury yield We have lowered our end-2019 forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp, to 2.25%. This reflects the fact that we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target for the federal funds rate this... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central European exports, PMI weakness & Polish stimulus The breakdown of the Central European Q4 GDP figures released this week showed that the surprisingly strong growth rates were driven by a rebound in exports, which appears to be related to a one-off... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.), Final Mfg PMIs (Feb.) The increase in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate, to 1.5% in February, will be of little comfort to the ECB given that it masks a small reduction in the core rate to just 1.0%. Moreover, the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) The manufacturing sector is starting to succumb to the one-two punch from Brexit and the global economic slowdown. The upshot is that there is little chance that the sector will immediately bounce... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Acceleration in growth unlikely to last Economic growth in Emerging Asia accelerated slightly last quarter, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We expect growth to remain weak over the coming quarters. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold still set to shine Despite having risen by over a tenth in the past six months, we believe that the upswing in the gold price has further to run. Our forecast of falling equity prices this year suggests strong demand... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
