Global Economics Update Further FDI reform in India likely if Modi wins election Recent moves to tighten restrictions on foreign e-commerce firms are more a reflection of the Indian government wanting to boost popular support ahead of the general election than a fundamental shift... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update No recession, but growth to remain weak Canada is not at immediate risk of recession, but the chance of GDP growth rising back above potential in the second half of the year looks slim. We now expect growth to average just 1.0% in 2019. 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update China trade deal won't prevent economic slowdown The rumoured trade deal with China won’t in itself provide much boost to the economy even if it includes the removal of the punitive tariffs levied by both sides in the past year. We continue to... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB growth forecasts to remain too optimistic Philip Lane, who is due to take over as the ECB’s Chief Economist in May, acknowledged last week that Q1 2019 will probably be the third successive quarter of below-potential GDP growth. We agree with... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US/China deal is limited comfort for global economy We do not expect the trade deal that is taking shape between the US and China to transform the outlook for the world economy, not least because we always argued that the adverse effects of new and... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too pessimistic about UK property yields? Over the last year, UK all-property yields have risen above those in the euro-zone for the first time in a decade and we think this gap will widen. This crossover is unusual, but it largely reflects... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC won’t ignore decent pay growth forever One reason why we think the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates further than most forecasters expect – assuming a Brexit resolution is reached – is decent pay growth. We think it will... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big is the threat to central bank independence? Central bank independence seems to be increasingly under attack, raising fears that the success of central banks in anchoring inflation and inflation expectations in recent years could be reversed. We... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb.) The weaker-than-expected Turkey inflation data for February are unlikely to be enough to persuade the central bank to lower interest rates at its monetary policy meeting later this week. We expect the... 4th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Industrial downturn deepens February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the industrial downturn in advanced economies has worsened. Even the US is showing signs of succumbing to the widespread deterioration in industrial output. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pensions, new BCB governor, Mexican bonds Noises from Brazilian lawmakers this week hinted that parts of the government’s pension reform plan could be diluted. But so far, the core components of the bill do not appear to have come up against... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Upturn in EM manufacturing won’t be sustained The EM manufacturing PMI picked up last month, but we think that growth in the manufacturing sector will still slow in the coming months. 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China stimulus likely to drive prices Next week, commodity markets will be closely watching the annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, hoping for additional fiscal stimulus. The government’s Work Report and... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Optimistic investment plans unlikely to be met The Annual Capital and Repair Expenditures survey revealed that firms expect to raise their investment by 2.8% this year. However, with the economic backdrop deteriorating since the survey was carried... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index to a near-three-year low is a clear sign that US manufacturers are getting hit by the broader global industrial downturn. While higher interest rates and the... 1st March 2019 · 1 min read
