India Economics Update BJP election surge in Karnataka boosts reform prospects A strong showing in the Karnataka state election suggests that Prime Minister Modi’s BJP retains significant goodwill among the electorate. Mr Modi’s record to date suggests that he will continue to... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the world now less sensitive to oil prices? Oil price movements have big effects on individual economies, companies and assets. But we suspect that their impact on aggregate global demand is smaller now than it was a decade or two ago. This is... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How will Chinese A-share inclusion affect the MSCI EM Index? 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update After Argentina, who might be next? Argentina’s currency crisis and turn to the IMF for financial support have raised questions about how much ammunition EMs’ foreign exchange reserves provide. On the broadest measure of external... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update MSCI inclusion to have little practical impact MSCI today unveiled the full list of Chinese shares that will be added to its global indices starting next month. Inclusion is symbolically important for China’s leadership. But the impact on domestic... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the Turkish lira’s latest fall mean for inflation? The Turkish lira’s decline in recent weeks will keep headline inflation elevated, prompting the central bank to shrug off political pressure and hike interest rates in the coming months. The big risk... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: lessons from 2001/02 There are some similarities between Argentina’s current crisis and 2001/02 crisis. But there are also critical differences, not least the fact that the peso is now free-floating and the authorities... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1), IP (Mar.) & German ZEW (May) We think that the slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth in Q1 largely reflected temporary effects. So we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better over the rest of the year. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) March’s labour market figures provide us with optimism that sustained rises in real pay are in prospect and will place more pressure on the MPC to hike interest rates soon. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Mar.) Robust job creation, a high level of vacancies and another small uptick in the pace of average earnings growth paint a positive picture for occupier demand. But with London punching above its weight... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Early signs of an EM export slowdown The very latest trade figures show that EM export growth has already started to soften and the continued weakening of the survey data suggest that this slowdown will continue in the coming months. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Dutch GDP (Q1) The sharper-than-expected slowdowns in both German and Dutch GDP in Q1 suggest that there is a risk that euro-zone GDP will be revised down from the first estimate of 0.4% q/q. But with Q1’s weakness... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1) GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed that growth in the region as a whole expanded by 4.5% y/y in Q1. While this is still strong by recent standards, it’s weaker than a recent peak of... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply in April, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in June. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Finland GDP (Q1) Norway’s economy did not perform as well in Q1 as the headline growth numbers imply. But we remain optimistic about growth over the rest of the year. Meanwhile, Finland’s economy put in a strong... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
