Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s better-than-expected industrial production data from Mexico, which were the result of a surge in manufacturing output, support our view that GDP growth this year will be stronger than most... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The unexpected 1,100 decline in employment in April is probably nothing to worry about given the strength of the gains in recent months and that unseasonably bad weather last month may have played a... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Macron’s first year bodes well for France One year into President Emmanuel Macron’s term, the French economy is performing well. Annual GDP growth is healthy and the labour market is recovering steadily. But this owes little to Macron’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in March, but the rate of growth is still reasonably healthy and the sector appears to have performed well across Q1 as a whole. Looking ahead, prospects for... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC unlikely to wait too long After the sea of downbeat economic news in recent weeks, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision to keep rates unchanged at its meeting in May came as little surprise. Of course, the MPC’s... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Subdued spring for the housing market The housing market slowed further in March – mortgage approvals slipped, transactions took a surprisingly large tumble and house price growth was lacklustre. April’s data from the RICS implied that... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 moderated last month but a turnaround is unlikely for some time yet, meaning that weaker lending will remain a headwind to... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q1 GDP figures The batch of preliminary Q1 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due next week should confirm that, while regional growth peaked last year, it remained relatively strong at the start of 2018. The pace of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1) Hong Kong’s economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. We think GDP growth has now peaked though and will slow over the coming months as headwinds from tightening... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic on Dublin retail rents? Q1 data indicate a rise in prime Dublin retail rents, following last year’s stagnation. With strong demand and supply fundamentals, we think rents will rise further over the next couple of years, but... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea: A one-year progress report on President Moon The highlight of Moon Jae-in’s first year as president has been the improvement in relations with North Korea. On the economic front, however, Moon has largely steered clear of the kind of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Solid occupier markets to support capital values Given the prevailing level of risk-free rates, it is hard to make a compelling case that commercial property is overvalued as an asset class. Admittedly, valuations in some segments, such as offices... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How much worse will it get for EM assets? The pressure on emerging market (EM) assets that began in late January may have eased slightly in the past day or so. But our forecasts are for further weakness between now and the end of next year... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Income tax cuts not a game changer for consumption The income tax cuts announced in this week’s 2018/19 Federal Budget are not enough to prevent consumption growth in Australia from slowing this year, especially given taxpayers won’t see the bulk of... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: At least one more rate cut before year-end After cutting its lending rate just a month ago, it was no surprise that the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) decided to leave policy on hold today. However, with inflation benign and the economic... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
