Precious Metals Update More downside ahead for PGMs Supply of platinum group metals (PGMs) is likely to fall in 2018, as reserve depletion in South Africa takes its toll. Nonetheless, we expect prices to decline from current levels as demand is also... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Putting the EM sell-off in context EM financial markets have steadied today, but the moves over the past few weeks have been relatively large compared with the other Fed-related sell-offs over the past 18 months. That said, this sell... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Central Bank of Iceland on hold for now The Central Bank of Iceland is likely to leave policy unchanged next week. But with inflation set to rise, we expect it to raise interest rates later this year. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update EM weakness to contribute to global slowdown The current troubles in Argentina and Turkey are not the start of a systemic emerging markets crisis, but we do think that EM growth will slow this year. With a US-led slowdown in advanced economies... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia: What next for monetary policy post-election While Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at today’s scheduled monetary policy meeting, the outlook for monetary policy has been thrown into considerable uncertainty following... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 3.0% m/m rise in gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to a 14-month high of 2.5% in April, but the more muted 0.1% m/m gain in core CPI suggests that the surge in underlying inflation in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What does today’s MPC decision mean for property? We do not think recent softer economic data or the MPC’s decision to hold fire today have set the tone for 2018. Our above-consensus growth forecast is consistent with the MPC continuing to increase... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update IMF or not – Argentina to fall into recession this year The news that Argentina has started talks with the IMF over a full-blown bailout has masked the fact that – deal or no deal – the economy is likely to fall into recession this year. We now expect GDP... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Consumer Prices (Apr.) Brazilian inflation ticked up to 2.8% y/y in April, but underlying price pressures are still subdued. Taking that together with softer economic activity figures, we think COPOM will cut the Selic rate... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage rates are still on an upward path The MPC held off from raising Bank Rate in May, suggesting that the next rise in mortgage rates may also have been deferred. But interest rates remain on an upward trajectory, suggesting that today’s... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC to wait for evidence that slowdown is temporary While the MPC thinks that the economy’s slow start to the year should prove temporary, it sees the costs of waiting a few more months to be sure as being relatively low. As a result, we still expect... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy stumbled in Q1 Today’s activity data suggest that growth faltered in Q1. Recent surveys, however, point to improving conditions, and we maintain our above-consensus GDP growth forecast of 2.0% over 2018 as a whole. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Aggressive tightening cycle unlikely The Philippines central bank (BSP) today hiked its key policy rate from 3.00% to 3.25%, but also left the door open to further rate increases later this year. While we think interest rates will be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we worry about a M5S-League alliance? The fundamental differences between Italy’s Five Star Movement and League suggest that even if they agree to form a government together, they will not implement either party’s more extreme and costly... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production, Construction & Trade (Mar.) March’s activity figures did little to support suspicions that the overall economy grew a bit more quickly in the first quarter than the preliminary GDP figures suggest. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
