Industrial Metals Update Have zinc prices further to fall? After two years of sizeable deficits, there are signs that the tightness in the zinc market is easing, which explains why prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year. We think that prices... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) Data from the RICS suggest that the decline in housing market activity eased off in April. But there is little reason to believe that either transactions or house price pressures will soon recover. 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further fall in Egyptian inflation in April – to 13.1% y/y – should be enough to prompt the central bank to continue its easing cycle next week. We have pencilled in another 100bp reduction in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Governor, fresh style, same story While new Governor Adrian Orr’s communication style is clearer and more conversational than his predecessors, the outlook for policy remains much the same. The RBNZ left interest rates at 1.75% and... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices a mixed blessing for Africa The recent rally in oil prices – Brent crude has climbed to a fresh four-year high of $77pb in recent days – will provide a welcome boost to the region’s major oil exporters, Angola and Nigeria. If... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as net imports fell. In contrast, US crude production rose to another record. The recent surge in crude prices is likely to lead to even faster growth in... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Weak Q1 GDP largely due to temporary factors Euro-zone GDP data for Q1 were pretty weak. Indeed, quarterly growth in the euro-zone economy slowed from 0.7% in Q4 to just 0.4%, its weakest rate since Q3 2016. And national data showed that growth... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further drop in Mexican inflation last month reinforces our view that the tightening cycle is over and that the next move in interest rates will be down. In contrast, the markets have responded to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina and the IMF: what happens next? The announcement yesterday that Argentina will seek an IMF deal has brought some relief to the peso, but it’s far from guaranteed that an agreement will be reached. More generally, talk of an IMF deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Trump and Iran’s nuclear deal: assessing the impact President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran is likely to prompt a fresh downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the MENA... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows to emerging markets have slowed in recent weeks. But for all the talk of a broad-based selloff in EM assets and a pull-back by foreign investors, there’s little evidence so far to... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Switzerland CPI (Apr.) Easter timing effects distorted April’s inflation data. Looking ahead, inflationary pressure is building in Sweden and, to a lesser extent, in Norway. Inflation is much more subdued in Switzerland. 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr.) While Easter timing effects dragged down sales growth in April, the underlying trend does not look particularly strong. Nonetheless, with employment growth still solid and real wages now on the rise... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update European and Japanese equities likely to hit the buffers Large-cap equities in Europe and Japan have fared far better than those in the US since mid-April. But this seems to have been entirely due to a resurgence of the dollar, which we expect to more than... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
