Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose last week due to a jump in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Meanwhile, the Brent-WTI spread is likely to remain fairly narrow until stock levels at Cushing... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rebounds despite “trade war” fears With the US and China poised to impose tariffs on each other in the coming days trade tensions look set to ratchet up further. But the world economy is still doing well. We estimate that global... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Strong growth likely in run-up to election Economic growth has surged in recent quarters and we expect it to remain strong over the next year or so, supported by buoyant private and government consumption ahead of the general election that is... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (June) Demand for home purchase and refinancing both dropped back in June, as higher mortgage interest rates and inventory shortages weighed on housing market activity. With interest rates set to trend... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will rising trade tensions hit Emerging Asian currencies hardest? 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Q2 growth set to be healthy, but slower than last year Hard data relating to euro-zone activity in Q2 have been a little disappointing so far, denting hopes that GDP growth would rebound strongly after Q1’s 0.4% quarterly expansion. Industrial production... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Euro-zone and US equity valuation: where’s the gap? Some argue that the stock market is less vulnerable in the euro-zone than in the US because its valuation is much lower. But the gap in their valuations is arguably negligible. 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The monetary data reveal a sharp slowdown in M1 growth in May, to its weakest pace since early 2016. But this isn’t a serious concern. Our measure of M3 broad money continued to expand at a decent... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM central banks move into tightening mode The recent spate of rate hikes in the emerging world probably marks the start of a sustained tightening cycle over the next 18 months – the first such cycle since 2011. This has more to do with... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt sticks to orthodoxy, positive signs from the Gulf The economic agenda laid out by Egypt’s new cabinet this week suggests that, despite the improvement in the budget position over the past couple of years, it will continue to tighten fiscal policy... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Signs point to slower Dublin industrial rental growth Prime industrial rents in Dublin jumped by close to 5% in Q1, driven by strong demand. But with Ireland’s economy cooling, and the prospect of increased speculative development, the easing in the rate... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Signs of a rebound in Q2 The improvement in all three Markit/CIPS PMI surveys in June provided further signs that the economy has rebounded after the weak start to the year. Indeed, the all-sector PMI rose from 54.3 in May to... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial upswing starts to slow The evidence suggests that the upswing in industrial rental values has started to fade. As investors cotton on and reassess the outlook for income growth, the current, rapid rate of yield compression... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss CPI (Jun.) & Swedish Production (May) June’s rise in Swiss inflation was driven by faster imported inflation, which we doubt will last. Domestic price pressures remain subdued, so we expect the SNB to leave interest rates unchanged until... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Headline consumer price inflation is likely to have stayed well above target in June, due in large part to core inflation remaining elevated by the standards of the recent past. We think that this... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
