Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional recovery gathering steam The raft of quarterly GDP data released over the past month confirmed that the MENA region rebounded at the start of this year and more timely figures suggest that the recovery is gathering momentum... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Are better times ahead for exporters? New manufacturing orders have recently risen strongly and exporters are more optimistic than they have been in years. However, there are a number of reasons to doubt that an export revival is on the... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker suggests that the escalation of global trade tensions has resulted in an acceleration of outflows from the emerging world. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: SARB talks tough, but rate hikes still unlikely South African policymakers adopted even more hawkish language at today’s MPC meeting, but we still doubt that they will hike rates in 2019. The risks to our non-consensus view are, admittedly, growing... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s inflation expectations becoming unanchored There is growing evidence that, despite Banxico’s best efforts, inflation expectations in Mexico are becoming unanchored. One consequence is that the monetary policy debate over the coming months will... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Slowdown coming, regardless of trade war Global GDP growth should remain strong over the rest of this year, due to healthy growth in household consumption and business investment. Inflation is likely to trend towards 2% in most advanced... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Drop in oil prices keeps Bahrain in the spotlight The recent tumble in oil prices has raised the pressure on Bahrain to secure financial support from the rest of the Gulf and for the government to outline its fiscal consolidation plans. We still... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A shift in fiscal policy is coming The Ministry of Finance is pushing back against calls to loosen policy. It may have little choice but to oblige, however, if headwinds to growth intensify in the coming quarters as we expect. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Ireland is faring better than GDP data suggest Ireland’s GDP contracted in Q1, but this tells us next to nothing about the underlying state of the economy. Other indicators are much more encouraging and, despite some big risks to the outlook, we... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: more rate rises likely despite today’s hold Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but the hawkish tone of Governor Perry Warjiyo’s press conference and the accompanying policy statement reaffirm our view that further monetary... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Corporate defaults surge Corporate bond defaults in China have jumped recently, adding to worries about the economic outlook. July is on track to more than double the previous monthly record for the scale of onshore bonds... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) Following weakness in Q1, today’s RICS Survey pointed to a further, modest deterioration in occupier demand conditions. However, the headline numbers paint an overly soft picture, with the... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The big quarterly rise in retail sales volumes in Q2 has provided yet more evidence that a consumer revival is now underway. 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Outlook positive, but risks are rising Most European economies have experienced a slowdown since last year, but growth is still strong by historic standards and prospects are fairly bright. Admittedly, trade protection poses a serious... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Fragilities easing, but not out of the woods yet Kenya’s wide current account deficit will narrow in 2019 as oil prices decline and food imports fall. But the situation will remain fragile; we think that economic growth will be softer than most... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
