Asia Economics Weekly Trade war risks rise, but no panic yet Despite the further escalation in trade tensions between the US and China over the past week, there is little sign that policymakers are starting to panic. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports come off the boil China’s commodity import volumes were markedly lower in June. High prices could have deterred oil imports, while ongoing efforts to combat pollution curbed imports of metals and ores. Crude imports... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to make of flattening yield curves Yield curves are their flattest since 2007/08 in a few advanced economies, a development commonly viewed as signalling an economic downturn. However, it’s unlikely that we are headed for a global... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Flood damage, Tokyo’s innovation crown Early signs are that this week’s floods in western Japan, for all their terrible human cost, have had only a small economic impact, though the affected regions are manufacturing centres. Meanwhile... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Chinese exports held up well on the eve of US tariffs. But weaker-than-expected import figures point to a renewed slowdown in domestic demand heading into the second half of the year. 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The continued upward trend in core CPI inflation, which rose from 2.2% to 2.3% in June, keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The disappointingly weak Mexican industrial production data for May suggest that the sector probably made a small negative contribution to overall GDP growth in Q2. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The national rate of house price inflation slowed to a near-five-year low of 2.9% in June. With house price inflation in Vancouver now plummeting back down to earth, the national rate looks set to... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation rose to a five-month high in June and, with core inflation in particular set to remain elevated, we think the RBI will follow up last month’s hike in the repo rate with... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Contraction eased in middle of Q2 Surprisingly positive figures from the mining and manufacturing sectors suggest that South Africa’s economy improved a bit last quarter. Even so, GDP probably continued to fall. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Credit availability for residential mortgages edged up in Q2, but only for lower LTV mortgages. And while the credit conditions for commercial property were broadly unchanged, for the first time since... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production offered welcome reassurance that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 did not mark the start of a downward trend. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco IPO up in the air, Egypt inflation jumps Reports that Saudi Arabia will scrap the Aramco IPO would, if confirmed, deal a symbolic blow to the Kingdom’s reform plans, but the economic impact should be limited. And the news flow on arguably... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery will peter out in 2019 Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen over the second half of 2018, but we think that the consensus view that this year’s performance will mark the start of a multi-year... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) New sales instructions rose for a second consecutive month in June. But with new buyer enquiries flat and the stock of homes for sale still close to a record low, a meaningful recovery in mortgage... 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
