UK Economic Outlook Renewed momentum gives MPC the green light With sustained rises in real wages now in prospect, real consumer spending growth should accelerate again. Of course, Brexit-related uncertainties and their economic effects could intensify over the... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week due to a rebound in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Production also increased, which is consistent with our view that rising US output will put... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans may need to change The Fed’s preference is to stick to the balance sheet normalisation plan it drew up last year, but we think a sharp economic slowdown will prompt the Fed to halt its balance sheet run-off in 2020. In... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Distorted US yield curve still a warning sign for the economy 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Wage differentials support CEE industrial border markets Growing occupier demand for industrial units close to the German and Austrian borders will offset the slower economic growth that we are expecting in the next few years in the CEE markets. This will... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded substantial declines in June. The fall of 12.3% m/m in total starts was the largest month-on-month drop since the end of 2016. Building permits were... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data for Russia were a bit soft, but remain consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth from 1.3% y/y in Q1 to around 2.5% y/y in Q2. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Retail sales suggest improvement in Q2 Today’s unexpectedly strong retail sales figures add to the evidence that South Africa’s economy improved in the middle of Q2. The contraction seems to have bottomed out in April. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) The lower-than-expected rate of CPI inflation means that a hike in interest rates in August is less clear cut. However, we still think that it remains more likely than not. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (May.) The UK House Price Index recorded a broad-based slowdown in May, with house price inflation cooling in every region over the last three months. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) June’s softer-than-expected inflation print supports our view that fears of a rate hike are misplaced. We think that the SARB will keep policy on hold this year, before cutting its key interest rate... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia CPI (Jun) The removal of the Goods and Service Tax (GST) was the key reason behind the sharp fall in inflation in Malaysia last month. Although inflation is likely to remain low for the rest of the year, we... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Oil prices likely to fall further, keeping the heat on equity markets 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rebound in manufacturing output in June means the sector posted another near-2% gain in the second quarter overall but, with the dollar strengthening markedly in recent months and retaliatory... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil prices still have further to fall The recent drop in oil prices is consistent with our view that growth in crude demand is likely to slow sharply over the next few years while supply should be ample. We still think that prices... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
