US Fed Watch Trump criticism won't derail Fed's plans The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But we expect the post-meeting statement to signal that, despite uncertainty over trade policy and criticism from President... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Clear divergences across sectors Indicators suggest that growth has increased from 0.2% q/q in Q1 to perhaps 0.4% q/q or 0.5% q/q in Q2. The labour market continues to post solid jobs gains, suggesting firms are confident about the... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Pick-up in Frankfurt office rents won’t be sustained Strong occupier demand and limited completions have boosted prime Frankfurt office rents. But with demand likely to ease and completions on the rise, this pick-up in rental growth is unlikely to last... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland will soon enter era of weaker growth Poland’s economy is set to expand at a robust pace over the remainder of 2018, but rising inflation and tighter monetary policy will cause the economy to slow by more than is widely anticipated in... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Flatter yield curves not a cause for concern Government bond yield curves in the Nordics and Switzerland have flattened this year, but we doubt that this signals that recessions are imminent in any of these economies. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the ECB try the twist? The very low level of long-term bond yields across the euro-zone suggests that there is no urgent need for the ECB to copy the US Fed’s “Operation Twist” by replacing short-dated securities with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s public finances: the last pillar to crumble President Erdogan’s growing influence over monetary policy leaves the public finances as the last remaining strong point of Turkey’s economy. But the budget position has deteriorated in recent years... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Jun.) Mortgage approvals have recovered during the second quarter, having now risen for three consecutive months. But demand is still weak, and further growth in approvals will be constrained by high prices... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (July) July’s very small fall in the Ifo Business Climate Indicator (BCI) left it still pointing to strong German GDP growth, which will encourage the ECB to maintain a fairly optimistic tone when it meets... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Rate hikes on the horizon in Chile The statement accompanying the decision by Chile’s central bank to hold its policy interest rate at 2.50% provided the clearest sign yet that policymakers are moving towards tightening. This supports... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC set to embark on tightening cycle The collective view of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June was that “an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period” would be necessary if the economy evolves in line with... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.1% y/y in June as the effects of last year’s “sin” taxes faded and housing inflation fell deeper into negative territory. But there are signs that broader price pressures are... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in headline inflation to back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for only the first time in 15 months was only possible because of a leap in petrol prices. There is hardly any price pressure... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position on the mend The improvement in Egypt’s balance of payments position over the past eighteen months should be sustained, providing some support to the pound. Accordingly, inflation should resume its downward trend... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery set to resume The recovery in Latin America stalled in Q2, but we expect regional growth to accelerate over the coming quarters and our GDP forecasts for 2018-19 are generally above consensus. The main exception is... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
