Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial vulnerabilities look contained The currency crises that rocked Argentina and Turkey in May and June raised fears that they would presage similar problems in other EMs. The fact that these then failed to materialise once again... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Although manufacturing sales rebounded in May and the near-term outlook seems bright, the sector remains on track for a weak second quarter. In the longer-term, competitiveness issues and trade policy... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Recovery to gather pace The recovery in the MENA region will be stronger than most anticipate over the coming quarters. The Gulf economies are set to benefit from rising oil output and fiscal stimulus, while Egypt’s cyclical... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) The final set of labour market figures before the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) August meeting will not deter the Committee from pressing ahead and raising interest rates. 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (May) There was another strong increase in job creation in May. And the fact that firms are struggling to fill vacancies suggests little change in the current health of occupier markets. 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will the BoJ lower its inflation target? The Bank of Japan’s admission that inflation won’t reach its 2% target anytime soon has generated speculation that the target will be lowered at the meeting later this month. By contrast, we believe... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production data for May, at first sight, suggest that the economy has weathered the recent financial market turmoil, but we doubt that this resilience... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is it time to worry about the flattening yield curve? The recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve appears to have been driven partly by structural forces, but this time is rarely different and when the yield curve inverts, an economic slowdown... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update IMF’s latest projections still too optimistic We agree with the IMF’s global GDP growth forecasts for 2018 but suspect that their forecasts for 2019 will need to be lowered. We think that the US and Chinese economies will slow by more than the... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s economy a threat to EM equities even if trade fears fade 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although underlying retail sales disappointed in June, upward revisions to earlier months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in the second... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How is gold demand faring in the wake of protectionism? A stronger dollar and lower economic growth in some of the largest consumers should have a negative impact on demand for gold, which could add to the downward pressure on prices. But for now, we still... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Slower growth in China will lead to lower coal prices A slowdown in China’s economic growth over the next year combined with the ongoing rise in renewable and natural gas-fired power generation should weigh on demand for coal and reduce prices. 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q2) & Activity & Spending (Jun.) Official GDP growth edged down last month but, unsurprisingly, remained rapid and in line with the government targets. Debates about the true pace of growth aside, it’s noteworthy that whereas in... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Trade deficit widens as protectionist clouds build The further widening in India’s trade deficit last month, coupled with the growing protectionist threat from the US, will inevitably raise concerns. But unlike many other countries in Asia, India’s... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal discipline slipping in Brazil The 2019 budget guidelines approved by Brazil’s Congress this week diluted measures to contain spending and reinforce our view that appetite for economic reform in the legislature is waning. Even if... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
