Global Economics Update Surveys softer at start of Q3, but still encouraging Preliminary PMIs for July fell but remain consistent with GDP expanding at a decent pace in advanced economies. The surveys also point to growing price pressures and slower world trade growth. 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily China’s government bond yields likely to fall despite fiscal boost 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN muddies the water Nigeria’s MPC left its key rate on hold at 14.00%, and hawkish language has led us to remove the rate cuts that we’d previously pencilled in for Q4. Confusingly, the governor also announced unorthodox... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s MPC: further hints that tightening is on the cards The Hungarian MPC’s post-meeting communications reinforced the message that the MPC is inching towards a tightening cycle. For our part, we think inflation is likely to rise further than most think... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (May.) According to the FHFA, the easing in the average pace of monthly house price gains was extended into May. The implication is that the recent drop in home sales and home buying sentiment appear to be... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Capital outflows from China only picked up slightly in June despite the market sell-off in the second half of the month. But there are tentative signs in the early indicators that outflows accelerated... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Flattening yield curve not the only bearish signal Recent trends in the survey evidence cast doubt on the idea that the Treasury yield curve is giving a misleading signal due to structural distortions. The curve may have steepened in recent days but... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank bows to Erdogan The Turkish central bank’s decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged at 17.75%, when most had expected at least a 100bp hike, suggests that President Erdogan is already using his strengthened... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack A mixed month for financial markets Swiss and Nordic financial markets have been a mixed bag over the past month. Equities in most countries have risen, supported by continued fairly strong economic growth. But equities in Norway and... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Loosening drive gains momentum The State Council has called for more proactive fiscal policy, including additional tax cuts. This follows further, large liquidity injections by the People’s Bank. While the direct impact of these... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Weakening investment intentions spell trouble Economic circumstances suggest that investment growth should be strengthening. Capacity utilisation is at a decade high, the unemployment rate is unusually low and wage growth is picking up. Machinery... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey bodes well for growth The ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey adds to the evidence that the euro-zone economy will continue to perform well. And there is little sign that the uncertainty about the Italian Government’s policies... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) July’s fall in the euro-zone PMI comes as something of a disappointment but the index is still consistent with a decent pace of GDP growth at the start of Q3. Accordingly, the ECB is likely to push... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Outlook subdued to 2020 Mortgage rates are set to exceed 3% by the end of our forecast. With house prices very high, that will keep house price inflation below 2% out to 2020. This means that the house price to income ratio... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office occupier markets strong, but growth moderating European office markets have started the year in buoyant mood, with take-up reaching a post-crisis high, vacancy rates falling and rents climbing by around 2.5%. Nevertheless, as we outlined at the... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Yen likely to strengthen again even if BoJ keeps policy ultra-loose 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
