Global Markets Outlook Trade war not the only headwind for risky assets Worries about a global trade war have already weighed on the prices of many risky assets, particularly those in Asia. And there is a growing risk that the US implements even more protectionist... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Softer data won’t deter MPC The financial markets are probably right to assume that an interest rate rise in August is still more likely than not. Somewhat counterintuitively, lower inflation might make it easier for the MPC to... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Pakistan: Major challenges await new government Whichever party wins Pakistan’s upcoming general election will take over an economy on the brink of a balance of payments crisis. Growth is likely to slow sharply regardless of who wins Wednesday’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jun.) Global aluminium output was down by nearly 3% y/y in June, owing to lower Chinese production and outages in Canada and Brazil. We think that supply will pick up in the third quarter – ahead of China’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Region fares well in Q2, Turkey to hike rates next week Activity data released in Russia, Turkey and Poland suggest that regional GDP growth remained strong at around 4% y/y in Q2. Among a number of monetary policy decisions due next week, we expect Turkey... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s public finances figures showed that government borrowing is still on track to undershoot the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR’s) 2018/19 forecast. As such, it seems likely that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Higher Italian bond yields increase risks for property The recent spike in Italian government bond yields is likely to be sustained for the foreseeable future, increasing the risk of a sharper re-pricing for Italian commercial property than we are... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s minimum wage policy backfiring The decision earlier this week to raise the hourly minimum wage by a further 11% next year will undermine President Moon Jae-in’s goal to reduce inequality and boost private consumption growth. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Rebound in S. Africa, new policy worries in Nigeria South African activity data out this week supported our view that the economy strengthened in the middle of Q2. Even so, growth will probably disappoint over 2018 as a whole. Elsewhere, Abuja’s... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Trade war & peace The trade war between China and the US will cause some collateral damage but the biggest potential threat to Japan’s economy is a US tariff on Japanese cars. For now though, our base case is that the... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Government set to face no-confidence vote The BJP-led government faces a no-confidence vote triggered by opposition parties over the coming days. We highly doubt the motion will lead to the fall of the government, given that the BJP holds a... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Energy inflation jumped in June. But if we strip out energy and fresh food, consumer prices have fallen in recent months, leaving the BoJ’s 2% inflation target out of reach. 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Stronger momentum in spending growth June’s retail sales figures were a little weaker than expected, with sales volumes falling by 0.5% on the month. However, some fall back in June always looked likely after two consecutive large... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Optimistic but cautious Having announced last month that asset purchases will end in December, the ECB is unlikely to make any policy changes at its July meeting. We doubt that President Draghi will offer more explicit... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
