Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul.) The second consecutive monthly rise in Mexican inflation was driven largely by higher energy inflation, and is unlikely to spook Banxico. There’s a long way to go until the next policy meeting, but... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-Canada spat, Iran sanctioned The diplomatic spat that erupted between Saudi Arabia and Canada this week should have little economic impact, but it does risk undermining investor confidence in Saudi Arabia at a time when the... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: nearing the end of the tightening cycle The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today increased its policy rate for the third meeting in a row, and left the door open to further rate hikes. We think at least one further increase in rates... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to remain under pressure in 2018 A preference for the US dollar as a safe haven has weighed on gold prices over the past few months. Given our view that the dollar will remain strong into 2019 and that growth in jewellery demand will... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) Data from the RICS suggest that the number of new instructions was flat in July, with new buyer enquiries also broadly stable. Against a backdrop of higher interest rates, the outlook for the market... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions and the importance of balance sheets The fact that the US sanctions (or the threat of) are having a bigger impact on financial markets in Turkey than Russia reflects the latter’s much stronger balance sheets as well as the credibility of... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul.) Egyptian inflation edged down to 13.5% y/y last month, a sign that the impact of the recent administered price hikes are starting to fade. But this will not be enough to prompt policymakers to loosen. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week but there are signs that demand for products is faltering, reflected in the rise in gasoline stocks. Indeed, lower consumer demand in response to high... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Assessing the impact of a trade war on the UK The macroeconomic impact on the UK of the tariffs which the US has already imposed on the EU and of the retaliatory tariffs which the EU has imposed on the US, will be trivial. The threat of... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Where are the risks from property greatest? In this follow-up to our recent Global Economics Focus “Why is property so often the source of trouble?” we assess where in the world the biggest risks to property prices lie. House price falls in a... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina’s central bank moving in right direction Argentina’s central bank announced a tweak to its monetary policy framework last night which, in time, should help it to gain better control over monetary conditions. It also appears to have stopped... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How can Turkey get out of its crisis? The lesson from other countries that have suffered from currency crises is that fiscal and monetary policy will need to tighten, preferably under the auspices of an IMF deal, to stabilise the economy... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will soft inflation delay Riksbank tightening? Non-energy inflation in Sweden has been unexpectedly weak in recent months, prompting investors to push back their expectations of the first rate rise into 2019. But there is evidence of rising cost... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jul.) Brazilian inflation rose to a higher-than-expected 4.5% y/y last month, but this reflects higher food and energy inflation which the central bank has made clear it will look through. Underlying price... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s imports unlikely to be sustained China’s commodity import volumes revived in July, but from a low base a month earlier. Indeed, we think import volumes will fall back in the coming months in line with the slowdown in economic... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
