Asia Economics Weekly Jokowi to stand again, tightening cycle to lose steam Joko Widodo (also known as Jokowi) confirmed earlier this week that he will be seeking a second term as president, setting the stage for a repeat of the 2014 election, which saw him narrowly edge past... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana Bank rescue, Mozambique debt talks The rescue of five small failing banks in Ghana should help to improve the (fragile) health of the sector and, in time, should help to support a recovery in credit growth. Elsewhere, the resumption of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment activity has peaked Property investment fell back sharply in Q2, keeping our prediction of an annual slowdown in activity firmly on track. Even so, investment will be cooling from levels which are high by historical... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden, Norway, Denmark CPI (Jul.) Underlying inflation is still fairly weak in the Nordic economies. But given increased capacity utilisation and rising wage pressures in both Sweden and Norway, we expect both the Riksbank and the... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Divining in different directions The chances that interest rates in Australia will rise a bit earlier than we expect have grown this week while it has become more likely that interest rates in New Zealand will be unchanged for longer... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Import duty hikes, monsoon update Recent hikes to import duties on various textiles products appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of the general election in early 2019. But while... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) While GDP started expanding again in the second quarter, growth isn’t as vigorous as last year. With the economy running into capacity constraints, we think that activity will remain sluggish for now. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A closer look at “bellwethers” of the global economy Some commonly-cited indicators suggest that the global economy has lost momentum recently. But a closer look indicates that most of these do not have a very good relationship with GDP growth. And... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Construction to drag down GDP growth Despite the recent stabilisation of some housing market indicators, steep falls in new home sales this year imply that construction activity will drop sharply over the coming 12 months. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports shrug off tariffs, but worrying signs ahead Early signs suggest that the first round of Washington’s tariffs on China had little effect on EM trade in July. Growing headwinds, however, suggest that export growth will slow in late 2018 and into... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as buyers stay away Housing market activity has come off the boil, as rising interest rates, a lack of inventory and concerns that house prices are too high have all weighed on buying sentiment. Both new and existing... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising interest rates not a major drag on credit demand Rising interest rates appear to be weighing on mortgage demand but, for now at least, there are few signs of a sharp slowdown in consumer and business lending on the horizon. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE slowdown continues GDP data out next week will probably show that GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe slowed for a third straight quarter in Q2. We think that the slowdown will continue over the rest of 2018 and... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
