UK Economics Weekly Economy resilient, but “no-deal” Brexit fears grow Our central scenario envisages a smooth departure from the EU on 29th March 2019. But that outcome is far from certain. And although the more extreme warnings about the short-term impact of a “no deal... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Saudi storm won’t cause economic damage The sudden escalation in political tensions between Canada and Saudi Arabia this week seems alarming, but investors are right not to fret about the consequences. After all, Canada sends just 0.2% of... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Supply concerns lift the prices of some commodities Despite generally bearish investor sentiment, the prices of a number of commodities rose this week. In particular, the price of aluminium jumped on plant closures in Australia and persistent concerns... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Affordability at 10-year low, but no need to panic Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Graft scandal rattles Argentine markets The Turkish lira may have surpassed the Argentine peso as the worst performing EM currency this year, but Argentine markets have still had a rough week. The lesson from other parts of Latin America is... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in core inflation to 2.4% in July, a decade high, will be enough to convince the Fed to raise interest rates again in September. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected Mexican industrial production figure for June was driven in part by a surge in utilities output, which is unlikely to be sustained. Even so, we still think that industrial... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although the 54,000 rise in employment in July blew the consensus out of the water, it was driven largely by temporary jobs, and average earnings growth dropped sharply. Despite the positive headline... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2018) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth, to 1.8% y/y in Q2, was a bit weaker than we had expected and there is now a downside risk to our growth forecast of 2.3% for the year as a whole. Even so, we think... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a worry is Turkey? The plunge in the lira which began in May now looks certain to push the Turkish economy into recession and it may well trigger a banking crisis. This would be another blow for EMs as an asset class... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Indian industrial production growth jumped in June, and prospects for the sector remain relatively upbeat over the near term. That said, the recent hikes to tariffs on textiles imports could end up... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will Turkey’s crisis affect other EMs? Aside from the impact on a few small neighbouring countries, most notably Bulgaria, the direct risk of contagion from Turkey’s crisis to other EMs is fairly low. However, Turkey’s problems may add to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Cuts to official policy rates are coming soon Market interbank rates have now converged with those offered by the People’s Bank in its lending operations. We think the central bank will soon start cutting these official policy rates in order to... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: First Estimate (Q2) The GDP figures confirmed that the economy bounced back after the weak start to the year and will reassure the Monetary Policy Committee that it was right to raise interest rates last week. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2) Hong Kong’s economy slowed last quarter in year-on-year terms after expanding in Q1 at the fastest pace since 2011. Looking ahead, with headwinds from tightening monetary conditions building and... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey on the brink Turkey seems to have been on the brink of a crisis several times this decade, only for the central bank to do just enough to steady the ship. But there are reasons to think that emergency interest... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
