US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold/silver price ratio to fall from 23-year high We think the prices of both gold and silver will rise in 2019 but silver looks set to outperform. It will benefit from its higher beta, a recovery in investor interest and a sharp slowdown in mine... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Aug.) The combined value of deals completed for UK commercial property in August surged by £1.5bn, or by 44% compared to the previous month. But, that improvement was driven almost entirely by a single deal... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jul.) The much stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production for July suggest that the boost to competitiveness from the fall in the lira in May and June has supported the sector. But these predate... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina budget concerns, Brazil election heating up Argentina’s 2019 budget will reportedly contain some much-needed spending cuts, but key IMF requests are conspicuous by their absence. Meanwhile, Brazil’s election race is beginning to heat up, but... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities treading water There was no clear trend in commodity prices this week. The price of oil rose on data showing a sharp fall in US crude stocks, while metals took some comfort from the announcement of new trade talks... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey hikes, Czech rates in focus, Hungary in trouble The aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey on Thursday has soothed the markets, but President Erdogan’s comments today reinforce our fears that he will put pressure on the central bank to reverse... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden’s election dead heat no big deal for Riksbank Political uncertainty following Sweden’s general election last weekend is unlikely to meaningfully alter the Riksbank’s plans to start tightening policy around the turn of the year. Meanwhile, in... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily 10-year Treasury yield likely to rise decisively above 3% soon 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed raising risks of slowdown further ahead The further rise this week in market interest rate expectations for the next 12 months brought them almost in line with our own long-held and once-hawkish projections. But investors are increasingly... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Solid start to Q3, but Brexit uncertainty to keep MPC on hold While Michel Barnier, the EU’s Chief Negotiator, raised hopes that a Brexit deal will be secured soon, we suspect that an agreement is still some way off. This feeds into our forecast that sterling... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The more modest 0.2% m/m gain in manufacturing output in August provides further evidence that the appreciation of the dollar over the past six months is now beginning to weigh more heavily on output... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly NAFTA talks drag on; housing remains vulnerable The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB focused on wage growth, not industrial slowdown Despite the recent softening of the economic data, on Thursday ECB President Mario Draghi maintained a positive tone on the outlook for GDP growth and inflation. And the Q2 labour cost data, published... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
