Energy Update Oil demand growth to soften Growth in global oil demand looks set to ease in 2019, driven by the expected economic slowdowns in China and the US, along with subdued consumption in Europe. High oil prices and mounting... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Aug.) Polish activity data for August were strong and suggest that the economy has continued to expand at a rapid 5% y/y in Q3. The risks to our 2018 GDP growth forecast of 4.3% lie to the upside. 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Will the slowdown in rental growth persist? Slowing rental growth has been driven by cooling tenant demand growth. And in the near term, there are few signs of an imminent revival in rents. But with the supply and demand balance more likely to... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia slipping into crisis, SARB holds back Zambia’s debt worries escalated this week, and it’s increasingly difficult to see how the country can avoid a full-blown crisis. Elsewhere, yesterday’s MPC vote in South Africa was closer than we’d... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Copper prices to rise in 2019 We think that stagnating supply growth, solid demand and lower global stocks will prompt some recovery in the price of copper in 2019. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Trouble for EM assets probably far from over Even though emerging market (EM) assets generally weakened again over the past month, and some have now fallen a very long way, we still forecast that there is considerably more pain to come. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) The downward trend in existing homes sales seen since April came to a halt in August, with sales unchanged over the month. But that still left sales at 2½-year lows. With interest rates set to rise... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will euro-zone office yields still rise in 2019? Our updated yield model points to prime euro-zone office yields rising by only around 5bps by the end of 2020. This is notably less than our forecast, which points to a rise of 20bps in the same... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Divided MPC narrowly holds rates Today’s split MPC decision in South Africa shows significant minority support for tighter policy. But if the hawks couldn’t swing today’s vote, it’s unlikely that they will succeed in pushing for a... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon fears escalate, Saudi happy with $80pb oil The sharp widening in Lebanese dollar bond spreads this week suggests that investors are increasingly fearful that the country is lurching towards an economic crisis and, in the event of a fresh... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite inflation ticking up in August, prolonging the squeeze on real incomes, retail sales volumes increased. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s driving stronger Saudi capital outflows? Capital outflows from Saudi Arabia have picked up over the past 18 months, but the bulk of this seems to reflect ongoing foreign investments by the sovereign wealth fund. A bigger concern from the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Norges Bank tightening to end sooner than most expect The Norges Bank has announced its first interest rate hike in seven years, but we suspect that the tightening process will be over much sooner than policymakers or investors envisage. 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB dovish amid concerns about franc strength The Swiss National Bank stuck firmly to its ultra-accommodative policy stance today and sounded more downbeat about the outlook, revising down its medium-term inflation forecasts in light of the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
