Global Economics Update PMIs stable at the end of Q3 Preliminary PMIs suggest that GDP was expanding at a steady pace in advanced economies in September. The euro-zone has not recovered from a weak first half of the year, and the US has continued to do... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank has lift off, SNB to remain grounded The Norges Bank’s “dovish hike” this week caused the krone to weaken, and we think that this is a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank left policy unchanged, and we suspect that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) Headline inflation looks set to continue falling to around 2% by the end of the year, as energy price inflation drops back. But with all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures picking... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising interest rates will take their toll in 2019 The surge in market interest rates, which continued this week, is already feeding through to higher borrowing costs for households and businesses and leaves us increasingly confident in our view that... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Rise in inflation won’t worry MPC, Brexit mood sours The unexpected rise in inflation in August came as a bit of a nasty surprise. But we still think that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) can afford to sit tight until Brexit uncertainty has been... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Markets surge, China considers import tariff cuts China’s financial markets shrugged off this week’s confirmation that both the US and China will be expanding their tariffs on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite actually having its best week since... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly PMIs and supportive ECB offer reassurance The latest data add to the evidence that the slowdown in the euro-zone economy this year has not just been down to a series of “one-offs”. We expect growth to slow further over the next couple of... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM GDP growth softening The raft of Q2 GDP data released over the past month or so showed that aggregate EM GDP growth was actually a little stronger in Q2 than in Q1. However, more timely hard activity data for July and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s stimulus plan: Doing more with less President Ramaphosa’s US$28bn infrastructure fund is mostly made up of already-committed public spending, and the economic effect will be limited. Lower-profile reforms to visa rules, mining... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Hotel capital value growth appears to have peaked Recent weak tourism numbers paint a subdued picture of demand in the hotel sector. But the softness appears to reflect a return to more normal levels, rather than being an indication that hotel demand... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack The consumer sector gains momentum in Q3 Retail sales volumes rose in August despite the boost to sales from July’s warm weather and the World Cup unwinding. Indeed, while food sales fell in August, this was more than made up for by the... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Global money and credit conditions remain accommodative. Broad money has been expanding at a decent pace and the latest lending data are encouraging. There are, however, some signs that higher... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey underwhelms, Russia budget, Hungary rates reaction The New Economy Program presented by Turkey’s finance minister on Thursday included more realistic economic forecasts, but it failed to build on the central bank’s interest rate hike last week and... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) Borrowing was higher than expected in August, marking the end of a run of strong figures. Despite the rise in borrowing in August, it is still on track to come in below the Office for Budget... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) The softening of the euro-zone Composite PMI in September adds to evidence that the region’s economy has lost some momentum after 2017’s very strong expansion. But as the index is still consistent... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rates hikes coming in the Philippines, markets resilient Rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines mean the country’s central bank is likely to raise interest rates by 50bp at its meeting next week. Bank Indonesia is also likely to raise rates, but... 21st September 2018 · 1 min read
