Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jul.) The larger-than-expected 0.2% m/m gain in Mexican industrial production in July is an early sign that the slump in the sector in Q2 will reverse in Q3. This supports our view that Mexican GDP growth... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Softening demand to hit housebuilding Despite support from Help-to-Buy, newbuild demand appears to have slumped during 2018. In response, some builders will need to cut prices to clear unsold inventory – stalling newbuild house price... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected growth in South African manufacturing recorded in July suggests that the economy made a good start to Q3. But more timely surveys indicate that this momentum hasn’t been... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Export growth slowdown looks set to persist After providing a big boost to GDP growth last year, net exports were a drag on growth in the first half of 2018. This does not look like a temporary response to heightened trade tensions. Instead, it... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) Pay growth ended its recent soft patch in emphatic style in July, with underlying pay growth reaching its joint-highest pace since 2008. This suggests that competition for workers is finally starting... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Jul.) As an indicator of the health of occupier markets, today’s employment data are rather stronger than they appear at first sight. The data show that while firms have reduced their reliance on part-time... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Tightening cycles in the Andes to begin soon The Andean economies of Chile, Peru, and Colombia all appear to be close to raising interest rates. In this Update, we take a closer look at what has triggered central banks to begin tightening cycles... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity in the doldrums Mortgage interest rates, credit standards and buyer sentiment have all been stable over the past couple of months. But both mortgage applications for home purchase and home sales have seen further... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus High debt burdens mean rate hikes will hit hard The large build-up in private sector debt over the last decade means that the Canadian economy is far more sensitive to interest rate rises than in the past. This increases the likelihood that the... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Rally in Italian government bonds unlikely to persist for long 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will weaker currencies help or hinder EMs? The improvement in EM balance sheets over the past five years means that macroeconomic strains resulting from recent currency falls have been contained to Turkey and Argentina. Nonetheless, those EMs... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is austerity nearly over? The worst bit of austerity is behind us, but it is by no means over. There are powerful reasons for taking further action to reduce the public sector debt burden. So we think that the Government will... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports remain subdued China’s commodity import volumes slipped back in August, which is consistent with generally softer economic data. While there are signs that the government is moving to a somewhat more accommodative... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Jul.) The stronger-than-expected GDP figures for July suggest that the economy continued to shrug off Brexit-related uncertainty at the start of Q3. That gives us confidence in our forecast that the economy... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial development activity set to improve The pace of development activity in the industrial sector has softened over the past year. However, leading indicators suggest that a recovery in activity may be in sight. So, although the outlook for... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Strong FDI inflows boosting external position India’s current account deficit remained at a sustainable level in Q2, confounding the fears that some had expressed of a sharp widening. What’s more, the deficit is now being financed primarily by... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
