Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank preparing the ground for tightening The statement that accompanied the Brazilian Central Bank’s meeting last night provided the first clear sign that it is preparing to tighten monetary conditions, with the first rate hike likely to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Shifts in trade policy There have been some notable shifts in Indian policymakers’ approach to foreign trade over the past month. For a start, the continued slide in the rupee caused the government to announce measures to... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Oil prices likely to fall and drag down inflation We have revised up our forecast for the price of Brent crude, but still expect it to fall in the coming year or so, helping to reduce headline inflation. However, we don’t expect this to have much... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil declined for the fifth consecutive week as net imports fell and refinery runs remained high for the time of the year. That said, refinery runs have started to ease back, which... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Relief for equities from trade concerns just a lull in the storm 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is the Turkish central bank shifting back to orthodoxy? Last week’s aggressive interest rate hike in Turkey has reduced the risk of a more acute balance of payments crisis and helped to restore some of the central bank’s (CBRT) damaged credibility. But the... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch More rate hikes on the way The continued strength of economic growth in the third quarter together with signs that wage growth and underlying inflation are accelerating will maintain pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) The headline 9.2% m/m rise in housing starts in August hides an otherwise disappointing report. The jump in starts was driven by the volatile multifamily sector, with single-family construction seeing... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do EM car sales tell us? The latest EM auto sales figures echo survey data and financial indicators in suggesting that economic disruption following recent market turbulence has so far been contained to Turkey and Argentina... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Weak balance sheets come under the spotlight Balance sheets in the largest MENA economies have received a lot of attention over the past couple of years, but more recently there has been increasing scrutiny of those in some of the region’s... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trade may trump rates as a driver of the US dollar Judging by what has happened in recent months, President Trump’s attitude to global trade could remain a more important driver of the US dollar than the prospects for monetary policy in the US and... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Why rate hikes in Thailand would be a bad idea The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of accompanying statement suggests that rate hikes are in the pipeline. With inflationary pressures very... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Jul.) According to the UK House Price Index, house price inflation slowed in July, bringing it further in line with the other main measures. And looking ahead, we expect house price growth to continue to... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone industrial slowdown to weigh on growth Euro-zone industrial production has slowed surprisingly sharply this year as producers have suffered from an investment-led global slowdown and an appreciation of the trade-weighted exchange rate... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Convergence on the cards At first glance, there might appear to be some tension between our forecast that oil prices will fall in 2019, while industrial metals prices will end the year a little higher. In fact, it is more a... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
