Europe Economics Update ECB’s plans unaffected by signs of slowdown The ECB today confirmed its intention to normalise policy gradually, expressing very little concern about signs of an economic slowdown. Given growing risks and economic uncertainty, the first... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war with China not a big risk to the outlook Recent developments suggest that the trade dispute with China will continue to escalate over the coming months, with a rising possibility that by early next year all bilateral trade could be subject... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Looking for the next Lehman’s means missing new risks Ten years after the collapse of Lehman’s, the risk of something similar occurring again in the near future appears to be low. But looking for the next Lehman’s misses the point – crises on the scale... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Exports to slow, even if trade war is avoided Asian exports are holding up well for now, but this strength is unlikely to last. Even if the current drift towards an all-out trade war between the US and China is halted (which we doubt), weaker... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August is unlikely to derail the Fed’s plans to continue hiking interest rates once a quarter, with another increase coming later this... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC in no hurry to hike again The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) does not appear to be in a rush to raise interest rates again soon. Indeed, our assumption that a Brexit deal will be struck at the eleventh hour will probably... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank steps up to the plate The aggressive interest rate hike delivered by Turkey’s central bank has soothed the markets, but the next thing to watch will be the reaction of President Erdogan. Any sign that he will try to... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt inflation, Saudi construction, Jordan tax plan August’s rise in Egyptian inflation means that the central bank will probably leave interest rates on hold at this month’s MPC meeting. But signs that core price pressures have eased means that it won... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why is Polish inflation weaker than elsewhere in CEE? Polish inflation is lower, and has been slower to rise, than elsewhere in Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), which seems to be a result of having more slack in its labour market and faster productivity... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) With RICS survey pointing to falling activity across the board, the housing market’s mid-year respite ended in August. Indeed, leading indicators point to flat or falling mortgage approvals to the end... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can corporates cope with higher interest rates? The risk that higher interest rates will trigger widespread corporate defaults and cause the next global downturn is low, not least because business finances are generally in good shape. But as... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Are industrial metals oversold? We had always expected metals prices to decline this year on the back of a slowdown in China’s economy. However, even we have been surprised by the scale of the falls in prices, which we think have... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was a hefty decline in inventories of crude oil last week, which was in part driven by higher refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline and distillates both rose, as demand faltered. The latest... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How is Dubai’s economy performing? Economic growth in Dubai appears to have been broadly stable this year despite signs of weakness in the real estate and tourism sectors. The recent fiscal stimulus package and a step-up in... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Risks to EM equities and currencies look quite different 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How concerning is the housing market slowdown? Housing market activity has slowed since the start of the year, as rising interest rates and record low affordable inventory has weighed on home buying sentiment. With interest rates set to rise... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
