Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Markets more hawkish on Hungary, Turkish lira strengthens September’s strong Hungarian inflation data – released on Tuesday – caused investors to raise their interest rate expectations, coming round to our more hawkish view. Meanwhile, a fall in inflation... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports holding up well The solid growth in China’s commodity import volumes appears at odds with data pointing to softer economic activity. As such, we expect import volumes to turn down in the coming months. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nene resigns, PDP picks candidate, Nigeria eyes eurobond The resignation of South Africa’s finance minister boosted the rand this week by demonstrating President Ramaphosa’s firm stance on corruption. Meanwhile, Nigeria’s key opposition party selected its... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs will cause growth to slow Although the Fed’s rate hikes have so far been modest compared to previous tightening cycles, actual borrowing costs faced by households and firms have risen more markedly. That is a key reason why we... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More stock market weakness on the way The 5% drop in the S&P 500 so far this week suggests that investors are starting to factor in the prospect of the US economy slowing in response to tighter monetary policy. We think that this will... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Debt: Is there another crisis looming? A widespread US debt crisis is unlikely but, over the next few years, over-leverage in the non-financial corporate sector, particularly the oil & gas, utilities and telecoms industries, could trigger... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana & Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa cooperation remains limited The Ghanaian and Ivorian authorities’ failure to agree on a harmonised farm-gate cocoa price dampened hopes of a ‘Choc-OPEC’ that could effectively influence the global market. But collaboration in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Equity investors right to fear the effects of rising rates 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese steel prices set to tumble Supply concerns have led to a rise in Chinese steel prices this year. However, weaker growth in demand at a time of rising production suggests that prices will fall back sharply in 2019. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Sep.) The latest data suggest that Saudi Arabia is indeed capable of increasing production in order to offset falls in output in Iran and Venezuela. Weaker oil demand growth and higher supply from both OPEC... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The second consecutive modest rise in core consumer prices in September, together with the sell-off in the stock market, won’t be enough to prevent the “crazy’ Fed from raising rates again in December... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rating downgrades are another threat for Italy Rating downgrades as soon as the end of this month may well push Italian bond yields higher, with adverse effects on the economy and the banks. Further downgrades to junk status seem feasible in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Aug.) Manufacturing figures released today supported our view that the economy exited recession in Q3. But growth probably remained weak by historical standards, which we think will forestall rate hikes. 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Missing Saudi journalist makes politics key economic risk The disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul raises fresh questions about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s reputation as a reformer and political developments pose a growing... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Banks reigned in the availability of mortgage credit in Q3, driven by risk aversion and softening house price expectations. Meanwhile, a fall in risk appetite and concerns about the economic outlook... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
