Europe Economics Weekly Italy’s minor backtrack offers little reassurance The Italian Government’s fiscal projections, published this week, are based on overly-optimistic assumptions for GDP growth. We expect Italian bond yields to keep rising as the budgetary position... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) & Int. Trade (Aug.) September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Sep.) The rise in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in September, has already exceeded the BCB’s newly-published forecasts. And, taken together with comments from policymakers that hint at the start of a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: financing from the Gulf to stave off devaluation The $10bn financial support package for Bahrain will help to prevent a currency devaluation but, as we have long expected, financing has come with strings attached. A step up in fiscal consolidation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we fear oil at $100pb? While we expect oil prices to fall back from their four-year high, a continued rise to $100pb would not deal a big blow to global growth. But it would exacerbate current account pressures in some EMs. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Clouds darken over Milan office outlook With the economic outlook in Italy softening, the likelihood of weaker tenant demand at a time of rising completions means that we have lowered our forecasts for rental growth in 2019 and 2020. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Inflation in the Philippines to peak soon Inflation in the Philippines rose to a fresh nine-year high in September, but even if it starts to drop back over the coming months, pressure is likely to remain on the central bank (BSP) to tighten... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s fiscal boost will fade in 2020 The fiscal stimulus planned by Italy’s Government should provide a small boost to GDP growth next year. But that boost will fade in 2020 just as the ECB is likely to be tightening monetary policy... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI pauses, but isn’t done yet The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept rates on hold today, but flagged several upside risks to the inflation outlook in its accompanying statement and explicitly shifted to a more hawkish... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s rising oil output, Turkish lira back under pressure The sharp rise in Russian oil output in September, and talk this week of further increases, suggests that the recovery in Russia’s economy has further to run. The Turkish lira has come under pressure... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Households remain gloomy, yen to strengthen again Japan’s labour market is as strong as most of today’s workers will ever have known, which makes the persistent weakness of consumption all the more puzzling. Spending remains flat according to data... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The Halifax index of house prices fall in September, bringing its growth back in line with the other main indices. Looking ahead, we can see few triggers for an acceleration in house price growth. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Ghana’s revised GDP, Uganda hikes, Rand faces tough month New GDP figures have presented a more flattering picture of Ghana’s economy, though obviously actual output remains unchanged. The Bank of Uganda hiked its key interest rate this week, adding to signs... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.), Sweden Private Prod. (Aug.) September’s Swiss inflation data provided further evidence that despite strong GDP growth, domestic price pressures remain very weak. And with the franc’s recent appreciation dampening imported... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
