Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) August’s drop in manufacturing sales was almost entirely due to temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector. Sales are therefore likely to rebound in September, particularly with surveys... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further upside for Oslo offices Falling vacancy will drive up prime office rents in Oslo by around 14% by the end of 2020. And, with government bond yields forecast to stabilise at about 2%, there will be little upward pressure on... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in CPI inflation in September takes the pressure off the Monetary Policy Committee to act before it knows the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) A fresh slowdown in broad credit growth in September adds to the downside risks to growth and is likely to trigger further policy easing over the coming months. 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Aug.) UK house price growth slowed a touch in August. And while today’s data points to stable London house prices, other indices point to a fall. On balance, we expect UK house price growth to slow further... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies to provide only a modest boost The falls in most Latin American currencies this year have improved competiveness, but the conditions don’t seem to be in place for this to translate into a significant increase in net exports. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Gold set to shine brighter as economic storm clouds gather 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The modest 0.3% m/m rise in industrial production last month was driven by continued gains in manufacturing output, suggesting that the sector is holding up better than we had anticipated. But the... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: Elections will not improve long-run outlook Even if a planned election for next year passes smoothly, political uncertainty is likely to remain a drag on Thailand’s growth prospects. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Implications of an Italy-EU budget clash On its own, the inevitable clash between the EU and the Italian Government is unlikely to have much of an economic impact, at least in the near term. However, the situation could well escalate next... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Three reasons we expect the renminbi to breach 7.0 Slower economic growth, monetary easing and escalating trade tensions will all put the renminbi under pressure in the months ahead. The People’s Bank will continue to lean in the other direction but... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery losing steam Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably strengthen a touch in 2019, but growth across the region will remain weaker than consensus expectations. We think that growth in Nigeria will slow... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Aug.) August’s labour market data were weak. But the details suggest that the weakness reflects recruitment difficulties and is unlikely to be a sign of deteriorating occupier demand. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) We think that the drop in employment in the three months to August is more likely to be a blip rather than the beginning of a sustained decline in jobs growth. What’s more, pay growth continued to... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is the Phillips Curve back from the dead? After years of falling unemployment, wage growth has finally been picking up in the major advanced economies this year. However, the forces that have kept a lid on pay growth over the past decade are... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
