Capital Daily Monetary easing doesn’t alter gloomy outlook for China’s equities 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How would the economy weather a no deal Brexit? The impact of a no deal Brexit on the economy would depend on what sort of no deal it was, but there would be at least some negative effect in the short term. If the UK left the EU on bad terms, the... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Sep.) The sizeable rise in Chilean inflation to 3.1% y/y in September, taken together with hawkish comments from policymakers, supports our view that rates will begin to rise at the central bank’s meeting... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) Consumer price inflation is likely to have risen in September, in large part because the recent sharp fall in food inflation appears to have reversed. More important from the policy perspective, core... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro boost to hit political realities The strong showing for Jair Bolsonaro and his party in yesterday’s general election in Brazil has increased the chances of pro-market reform. This is likely to prompt an initial rally in local markets... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s 0.3% fall in German industrial production was much weaker than expected and suggests that the economy is very unlikely to match Q2’s 0.5% expansion in the third quarter. We have revised down... 8th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Demand weakness means rally is on borrowed time Metal prices rebounded strongly in September, in a relief rally, as the latest round of US-Chinese tariffs were lower than initially feared. However, slower growth in Chinese manufacturing and the... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil is losing touch with reality The latest leg-up in the oil price, to around $85 per barrel, was fuelled by persistent fears of a supply shortfall. However, we remain of the view that the market’s worst fears will not be realised... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Italian bonds and equities likely to remain under fire Although the 10-year government bond yield in Italy has already climbed by about 60bp since plans were announced for an EU-defying budget deficit, we think that it will rise by a similar amount... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss price pressures set to remain muted The fall in Swiss inflation in September is a sign of things to come. Indeed, exchange rate effects and weak wage growth are set to ensure that price pressures remain very weak, keeping the SNB on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost, Banxico’s dissenter The sharp rally in Brazilian asset prices this week appears to reflect growing expectations that right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will win the presidential election, the first round of which is on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US employment report bolsters case for further Fed tightening 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Growth up, unjustified Brexit optimism, the end of austerity? The latest evidence points to GDP growth picking up from 0.4% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3. That would make it the strongest quarter since the end of 2016. Even so, the economy would still be on track for a... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly PBOC facing RMB test, tax crackdown intensifying The People’s Bank faces a test when it sets the renminbi fix on Monday morning. With onshore markets closed for the past week, a wedge has opened between where the renminbi last stood onshore and its... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surging interest rates will worsen eventual slowdown The recent strength of the economy appears to be pushing Fed officials in an increasingly hawkish direction. But the corresponding surge in market interest rates this week only reinforces our own view... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
