Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.) Nigerian inflation remained essentially unchanged in September, which supports our view that – despite recent hawkish language – policymakers will leave their key rate on hold over the coming months. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Aug.) Turkish industrial production held up better-than-expected in August but there are clear signs that underlying growth in the sector is losing momentum. The effects of the recent currency crisis and... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Sep.) Our Tracker suggests that capital outflows from the emerging world remained small last month, and flows into EM bond and equity markets have recovered as the crises in Turkey and Argentina have eased... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook At a crossroads Rising real wage growth should pave the way for a consumer recovery next year. At the same time, the lifting of Brexit-related uncertainty will set the stage for a sharp rebound in investment spending... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q3) The Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey shows that growing capacity constraints are boosting investment intentions, which will reinforce expectations that the Bank will raise interest... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand to boost corn prices The USDA’s latest projections have not changed our view that ample supply will remain a problem for the grains and soybean markets. That being said, a fall in corn stocks, coupled with the potential... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Brexit stalemate likely to weigh more heavily on sterling 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Saudi Arabia unlikely to resort to “oil weapon” We do not expect Saudi Arabia to cut oil production in response to US criticism over a missing journalist, not least because it will want to preserve the “anti-Iran axis” with the US. However, if the... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will a trade war sink the global economy? It would require a significant escalation from the measures seen so far for a trade war to be the trigger of the next global downturn. The bigger risks at this stage are that lower-level skirmishes... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Despite the disappointing 0.1% m/m rise in headline retail sales in September, the strength of underlying sales suggests that third-quarter real consumption growth slowed only gradually to 3.5%... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia and the sanctions threat The escalation of tensions between Saudi Arabia and the US over the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is likely to weigh on local financial markets, but the Kingdom is in a strong... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Sep.) In September, the total value of commercial property investment softened slightly compared to August despite including a single deal worth £1.46bn. And with the market still suffering from a lack of... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand: strong baht will not stop rate hikes There are good reasons for the Bank of Thailand not to hike interest rates at its next meeting, as it currently appears determined to do. But currency strength is not one of them. 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly China will be back in the spotlight The focus of commodity markets next week is likely to be the raft of data out of China, culminating in Q3 GDP and September industrial output and investment spending on Friday. The September data, in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
