Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook SNB and Riksbank policy to diverge The era of record-low interest rates is nearly over in Sweden, but it is a long way from finished in Switzerland. The Swedish economy is powering ahead, generating inflationary pressure that the... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Khashoggi scandal, Saudi fiscal slippage, Egypt tourism Saudi Arabia might be patching together a face-saving statement over the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khasoggi, but the affair will damage the country’s long-term economic prospects and another... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Weak auto sales signal lower metals prices ahead Automobile demand has been sluggish for several months in China. This will weigh on demand for most metals and lead to lower prices too, especially for platinum group metals (PGMs) prices. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Although September’s retail sales figures were weaker than expected, sales still rose strongly over Q3 as a whole. And with sustained rises in real pay now in prospect, this should pave the way for a... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy finally returning to growth August’s headline mining output figures were very poor. But it still looks like the economy as a whole finally escaped recession in Q3 due to recoveries in the retail and manufacturing sectors. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3) The improvement in construction workloads in the third quarter was encouraging. But with labour shortages constraining activity, the development pipeline is unlikely to increase substantially. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: fresh political shock and oil prices key risks to watch The fallout from the disappearance of Saudi journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, has supposedly shifted investors’ attention to the Saudi government’s rising debt burden, but we think that these concerns are... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update A rate hike in Korea is not a done deal The Bank of Korea (BoK) left interest rates unchanged today, but appeared to leave the door open to a rate hike soon. However, with growth set to slow, trade tensions building and inflation likely to... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Modest slowdown masks large divergences Prospects for Europe have deteriorated somewhat as slowing global demand has begun to affect exports and a sharp rise in bond yields has darkened the outlook for Italy. Some of the major players... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to hike as trade uncertainty lifted The markets are convinced that the Bank of Canada will hike its overnight rate by another 25bp to 1.75% at next week’s policy meeting and it isn’t hard to see why. Economic growth has been solid this... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped again as exports fell back sharply. The latest data are likely to have been distorted by Hurricane Michael but crude stocks have been building for some weeks and should... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Joint rebound in the US stock market and dollar unlikely to last 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and Argentina not out of the woods The collapses in the Turkish lira and Argentine peso last quarter have caused bank and sovereign debt risks, respectively, to mount in those countries. Meanwhile, financial vulnerabilities are brewing... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The softness of the Russian activity data for September means that overall GDP growth probably weakened to around 1.5% y/y in Q3 (from 1.9% y/y in Q2). That said, there are still reasons to think that... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The headline drop in housing starts in September was mainly driven by the volatile multifamily sector, but single-family starts also edged down. Looking forward, the good news is that lumber prices... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
