Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Strength of Norwegian krone likely to end soon Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Inflation pressures mounting in Sweden and Norway Inflation data published this week showed that price pressures are building in Sweden and Norway. We expect the Riksbank to begin raising interest rates in December. But while the Norges Bank looks... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor USMCA shows Trump can stand down, but headwinds build Agreements signed in recent weeks indicate that the US may be willing to de-escalate trade disputes in order to achieve face-saving deals. Elsewhere, growing economic headwinds suggest that EM export... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stock market carnage can’t be blamed on “crazy” Fed It is hard to explain this week’s sharp drop in equity prices in terms of the incoming economic data. True, following the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield that began last week, the sell-off in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) The surprise contraction in Mexican industrial production in August puts paid to a strong rebound in overall GDP growth in Q3. But the drop was due in large part to a slump in construction. And with... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stronger growth based on shaky foundations We are gradually getting a clearer idea of how GDP growth in the third quarter shaped up. And so far, it is looking like it will be a pretty good number. But we doubt that the recent improvement will... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Sep.) After accelerating in September for the first time in 16 months, house price inflation could rise a touch further in the near term, but there is little hope of anything more than a temporary and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Industrial Production (Aug.) Consumer price inflation crept only a little higher last month. But with core inflation still well above the Reserve Bank’s target, we think that the tightening cycle has a little further to run. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why has logistics take-up diverged across Germany? A slowdown in retail sales growth helps to explain why logistics take-up volumes in Germany’s main cities have been weaker than across the rest of Germany. While the retail sector should pick-up next... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Pakistan and IMF start talks, equities set for further falls The head of the IMF, Christine Legarde this week set the tone for what are likely to be tough negotiations with Pakistan when she said the Fund would require Pakistan to be “absolutely transparent”... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World trade likely to slow, but not collapse After slowing sharply since the start of the year, we think that trade growth will lose further momentum in the coming months. But we doubt that there will be anything worse than a modest slowdown. 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Germany industry not as bad as it looks Some of the recent weakness in euro-zone industry, particularly that in Germany, seems to have been caused by hold-ups relating to new emissions tests. While part of this delayed output will probably... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would a no deal Brexit trigger a fall in house prices? A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) August’s euro-zone industrial production data were pretty strong, particularly given the drag from temporary disruption in the car industry. But the big picture is that this year’s general slowdown in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
